Canadian Western Agribition: Beefing up the Growth Strategy Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Canadian Western Agribition: Beefing up the Growth Strategy case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Canadian Western Agribition: Beefing up the Growth Strategy case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Tatiana Levit, Michael Taylor. The Canadian Western Agribition: Beefing up the Growth Strategy (referred as “Agribition Event” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Canadian Western Agribition: Beefing up the Growth Strategy Case Study

In early June 2014, the chief executive officer of Canadian Western Agribition, a not-for-profit organization, is reviewing the results of its 2013 agricultural show, a fair that takes place every November in Regina, Saskatchewan. The week-long event includes the largest livestock show in Canada, an extensive agribusiness tradeshow, a large marketplace of home products, a rodeo competition, and entertainment and educational programs that have a focus on First Nations. After bouncing back from major financial problems three years earlier, Agribition had generated almost $4 million in 2013. How can management ensure that it will continue to grow as a world-class event? Which customer segment - rural, urban or international - should be targeted? How can more visitors, ranchers and breeders be attracted to pay the admission, entry and commission fees that account for 90 per cent of the organization's budget? How can corporate sponsorship and government grants be increased? To maintain its status as one of the best beef shows on the continent, management must implement a marketing and operations strategy that will meet the needs and interests of many groups, a key element for growth and profitability.

Case Authors : Tatiana Levit, Michael Taylor

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Canadian Western Agribition: Beefing up the Growth Strategy Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10005280)	-10005280	-	-
Year 1	3444595	-6560685	3444595	0.9434	3249618
Year 2	3956619	-2604066	7401214	0.89	3521377
Year 3	3953274	1349208	11354488	0.8396	3319245
Year 4	3226783	4575991	14581271	0.7921	2555914
TOTAL			14581271		12646154

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2640874

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Net Present Value
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Agribition Event shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Agribition Event have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Canadian Western Agribition: Beefing up the Growth Strategy

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Agribition Event often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Agribition Event needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10005280)	-10005280	-	-
Year 1	3444595	-6560685	3444595	0.8696	2995300
Year 2	3956619	-2604066	7401214	0.7561	2991772
Year 3	3953274	1349208	11354488	0.6575	2599342
Year 4	3226783	4575991	14581271	0.5718	1844924
TOTAL					10431338

The Net NPV after 4 years is 426058

(10431338 - 10005280 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10005280)	-10005280	-	-
Year 1	3444595	-6560685	3444595	0.8333	2870496
Year 2	3956619	-2604066	7401214	0.6944	2747652
Year 3	3953274	1349208	11354488	0.5787	2287774
Year 4	3226783	4575991	14581271	0.4823	1556126
TOTAL					9462048

The Net NPV after 4 years is -543232

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9462048 - 10005280 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Agribition Event to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Agribition Event has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Agribition Event can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Agribition Event, then the stock price of the Agribition Event should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Agribition Event should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Canadian Western Agribition: Beefing up the Growth Strategy

References & Further Readings

Tatiana Levit, Michael Taylor (2018), "Canadian Western Agribition: Beefing up the Growth Strategy Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.