Experience China: A National Image Campaign in the United States Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Experience China: A National Image Campaign in the United States case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Experience China: A National Image Campaign in the United States case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by William Wei, Yuanfang Lin, Mei Qin Kok. The Experience China: A National Image Campaign in the United States (referred as “China Image” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Marketing, Public relations, Strategy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Experience China: A National Image Campaign in the United States Case Study

The China national image film "People Chapter" - officially a sub-series of the "Experience China" campaign - was launched by the Chinese government to coincide with President Hu Jintao's visit to the United States in mid-January 2011. The one-minute promotional video was played on six giant electronic screens about 300 times per day, and had appeared approximately 8400 times when the broadcast ended on February 14, 2011. The video showed a series of Chinese people, ranging from ordinary citizens to celebrities, in various areas. It was a publicity effort aimed at promoting a truer image of China abroad, and further signalling that China was opening to embrace the world. However, reactions from both Chinese and overseas audiences had been fairly controversial since the initial release of this promotional film. Experts from China and abroad were skeptical of the effectiveness of the campaign in promoting the national image of modern China to the world.

Case Authors : William Wei, Yuanfang Lin, Mei Qin Kok

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Marketing, Public relations, Strategy

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Experience China: A National Image Campaign in the United States Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014428)	-10014428	-	-
Year 1	3457935	-6556493	3457935	0.9434	3262203
Year 2	3962343	-2594150	7420278	0.89	3526471
Year 3	3958802	1364652	11379080	0.8396	3323886
Year 4	3223952	4588604	14603032	0.7921	2553672
TOTAL			14603032		12666232

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2651804

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of China Image have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. China Image shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Experience China: A National Image Campaign in the United States

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at China Image often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at China Image needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014428)	-10014428	-	-
Year 1	3457935	-6556493	3457935	0.8696	3006900
Year 2	3962343	-2594150	7420278	0.7561	2996101
Year 3	3958802	1364652	11379080	0.6575	2602977
Year 4	3223952	4588604	14603032	0.5718	1843305
TOTAL					10449282

The Net NPV after 4 years is 434854

(10449282 - 10014428 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014428)	-10014428	-	-
Year 1	3457935	-6556493	3457935	0.8333	2881613
Year 2	3962343	-2594150	7420278	0.6944	2751627
Year 3	3958802	1364652	11379080	0.5787	2290973
Year 4	3223952	4588604	14603032	0.4823	1554761
TOTAL					9478974

The Net NPV after 4 years is -535454

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9478974 - 10014428 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of China Image to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of China Image has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at China Image can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at China Image, then the stock price of the China Image should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at China Image should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Experience China: A National Image Campaign in the United States

References & Further Readings

William Wei, Yuanfang Lin, Mei Qin Kok (2018), "Experience China: A National Image Campaign in the United States Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.