Radiometer, 2013 Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Radiometer, 2013 case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Radiometer, 2013 case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by John R. Wells, Galen Danskin. The Radiometer, 2013 (referred as “Radiometer Diagnostics” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Radiometer, 2013 Case Study

In 2013, Radiometer continued to lead the world in blood gas analysis equipment and accessories, selling direct and through distributors to hospital central laboratories, point-of-care locations, and non-hospital medical locations. Founded in 1935 and based in Denmark, Radiometer was acquired in January 2004 by US-based Danaher Corporation. Under Danaher's direction, Radiometer began an intensive program of process improvements using the Danaher Business System (DBS), an iterative tool system and company culture that sought to continuously improve the company's growth and lean and leadership capabilities. However, as CEO Peter Kurstein reviewed the successes of the last ten years, he conceded that Radiometer still faced significant challenges. Progress in the USA, the world's largest market, remained elusive. How would Radiometer breakthrough in the US? Then there was the issue of long-term growth. Roche and Siemens were investing heavily in multiple diagnostics segments. How should Radiometer respond? Which other segments of diagnostics should Radiometer consider? Quest Diagnostics was selling HemoCue, a Swedish based global niche leader in hemoglobin testing. Would acquiring them make sense for Radiometer?

Case Authors : John R. Wells, Galen Danskin

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Radiometer, 2013 Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10023962)	-10023962	-	-
Year 1	3444438	-6579524	3444438	0.9434	3249470
Year 2	3965307	-2614217	7409745	0.89	3529109
Year 3	3973006	1358789	11382751	0.8396	3335812
Year 4	3243813	4602602	14626564	0.7921	2569404
TOTAL			14626564		12683795

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2659833

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Net Present Value
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Radiometer Diagnostics have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Radiometer Diagnostics shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Radiometer, 2013

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Radiometer Diagnostics often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Radiometer Diagnostics needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10023962)	-10023962	-	-
Year 1	3444438	-6579524	3444438	0.8696	2995163
Year 2	3965307	-2614217	7409745	0.7561	2998342
Year 3	3973006	1358789	11382751	0.6575	2612316
Year 4	3243813	4602602	14626564	0.5718	1854661
TOTAL					10460482

The Net NPV after 4 years is 436520

(10460482 - 10023962 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10023962)	-10023962	-	-
Year 1	3444438	-6579524	3444438	0.8333	2870365
Year 2	3965307	-2614217	7409745	0.6944	2753685
Year 3	3973006	1358789	11382751	0.5787	2299193
Year 4	3243813	4602602	14626564	0.4823	1564339
TOTAL					9487583

The Net NPV after 4 years is -536379

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9487583 - 10023962 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Radiometer Diagnostics to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Radiometer Diagnostics has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Radiometer Diagnostics can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Radiometer Diagnostics, then the stock price of the Radiometer Diagnostics should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Radiometer Diagnostics should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Radiometer, 2013

References & Further Readings

John R. Wells, Galen Danskin (2018), "Radiometer, 2013 Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.