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Computer and Technologies: Managing High Growth Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Computer and Technologies: Managing High Growth case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Computer and Technologies: Managing High Growth case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Ali F. Farhoomand, Marissa McCauley. The Computer and Technologies: Managing High Growth (referred as “Ng Shing” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Growth strategy, IT.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Computer and Technologies: Managing High Growth Case Study


A company established in 1991 by an entrepreneur has emerged as one of Hong Kong's biggest technology providers in 2000. Computer and Technologies Holdings Ltd. (C&T) (www.ctil.com) transformed from a systems integrator for the People's Republic of China (PRC) telecommunications sector to a full-range technology service provider in China and Hong Kong. In 1998, C&T became a publicly listed company and since then experienced tremendous growth. The business boasted profits that grew at double- to triple-digit annual rates. C&T was in transition in early 2000, positioning itself to capture the e-business opportunities in China and Hong Kong. It introduced new business units, changed the nature of its products and services, and created alliances. These changes, however, present a number of challenges to Ng Cheung Shing, founder, CEO, and chairman of C&T, and his management team. Ng Cheung Shing is uncertain how he is going to manage these changes, although he is aware of the need to create an appropriate strategic plan to manage C&T in the evolving business order.


Case Authors : Ali F. Farhoomand, Marissa McCauley

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Growth strategy, IT




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Computer and Technologies: Managing High Growth Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10023952) -10023952 - -
Year 1 3464353 -6559599 3464353 0.9434 3268258
Year 2 3974424 -2585175 7438777 0.89 3537223
Year 3 3974395 1389220 11413172 0.8396 3336979
Year 4 3231135 4620355 14644307 0.7921 2559362
TOTAL 14644307 12701821




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2677869

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Ng Shing have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Ng Shing shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Computer and Technologies: Managing High Growth

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Ng Shing often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Ng Shing needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10023952) -10023952 - -
Year 1 3464353 -6559599 3464353 0.8696 3012481
Year 2 3974424 -2585175 7438777 0.7561 3005236
Year 3 3974395 1389220 11413172 0.6575 2613229
Year 4 3231135 4620355 14644307 0.5718 1847412
TOTAL 10478358


The Net NPV after 4 years is 454406

(10478358 - 10023952 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10023952) -10023952 - -
Year 1 3464353 -6559599 3464353 0.8333 2886961
Year 2 3974424 -2585175 7438777 0.6944 2760017
Year 3 3974395 1389220 11413172 0.5787 2299997
Year 4 3231135 4620355 14644307 0.4823 1558225
TOTAL 9505199


The Net NPV after 4 years is -518753

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9505199 - 10023952 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Ng Shing to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Ng Shing has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Ng Shing can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Ng Shing, then the stock price of the Ng Shing should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Ng Shing should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Computer and Technologies: Managing High Growth

References & Further Readings

Ali F. Farhoomand, Marissa McCauley (2018), "Computer and Technologies: Managing High Growth Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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