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Nespresso and the U.S. Market Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Nespresso and the U.S. Market case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Nespresso and the U.S. Market case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Edward Boon, Colin Campbell, Leyland Pitt. The Nespresso and the U.S. Market (referred as “Nespresso Capsules” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Strategic planning.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Nespresso and the U.S. Market Case Study


At the beginning of 2012, Nespresso, a manufacturer and distributor of home-brewed, single-serve coffee machines and capsules, is considering how best to increase its share of the U.S. market. It had always relied on organic growth through its own retail stores and a few premium department store chains. However, between 2005 and 2011, the demand for capsule coffee boomed, and this attracted a number of new competitors, including Starbucks, while existing competitors increased their marketing expenditures. At the same time, Nespresso's patents were expiring, and some supermarkets started selling generic capsules for Nespresso machines. How should Nespresso change its strategy to ensure future growth? Should it relinquish its tightly controlled distribution system in order to offer increased convenience to consumers? Should it alter its product to better match the U.S. taste for milk-based coffee? Or might an increase in advertising spur demand?


Case Authors : Edward Boon, Colin Campbell, Leyland Pitt

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Strategic planning




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Nespresso and the U.S. Market Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10014205) -10014205 - -
Year 1 3471718 -6542487 3471718 0.9434 3275206
Year 2 3978732 -2563755 7450450 0.89 3541057
Year 3 3952896 1389141 11403346 0.8396 3318928
Year 4 3228670 4617811 14632016 0.7921 2557409
TOTAL 14632016 12692600


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2678395

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Profitability Index
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Nespresso Capsules shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Nespresso Capsules have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Nespresso and the U.S. Market

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Nespresso Capsules often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Nespresso Capsules needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10014205) -10014205 - -
Year 1 3471718 -6542487 3471718 0.8696 3018885
Year 2 3978732 -2563755 7450450 0.7561 3008493
Year 3 3952896 1389141 11403346 0.6575 2599093
Year 4 3228670 4617811 14632016 0.5718 1846003
TOTAL 10472474


The Net NPV after 4 years is 458269

(10472474 - 10014205 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10014205) -10014205 - -
Year 1 3471718 -6542487 3471718 0.8333 2893098
Year 2 3978732 -2563755 7450450 0.6944 2763008
Year 3 3952896 1389141 11403346 0.5787 2287556
Year 4 3228670 4617811 14632016 0.4823 1557036
TOTAL 9500698


The Net NPV after 4 years is -513507

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9500698 - 10014205 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Nespresso Capsules to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Nespresso Capsules has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Nespresso Capsules can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Nespresso Capsules, then the stock price of the Nespresso Capsules should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Nespresso Capsules should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Edward Boon, Colin Campbell, Leyland Pitt (2018), "Nespresso and the U.S. Market Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.