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Citigroup's Shareholder Tango in Brazil (A) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Citigroup's Shareholder Tango in Brazil (A) case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Citigroup's Shareholder Tango in Brazil (A) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Susan Perkins, Sachin Waikar. The Citigroup's Shareholder Tango in Brazil (A) (referred as “Dantas's Citigroup's” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management, International business, Strategy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Citigroup's Shareholder Tango in Brazil (A) Case Study


Citigroup has discovered that Daniel Dantas, hired five years earlier to manage Citigroup's $750 million private equity investment in a Brazilian telecommunications industry joint venture, has allegedly mismanaged more than $300 million in assets and contracts. Dantas's misconduct relates to his management of Citigroup's CVC Fund and II-FIA, a legal entity representing a group of large Brazilian pension funds. Together with Dantas's Grupo Opportunity, CVC and II-FIA own Brasil Telecom, the third largest telecommunications company in the country. The partnership's pyramidal ownership structure makes his actions difficult to track. Citigroup must quickly determine how to disrupt Dantas's intricately woven web of control without allowing him to extract further value from the partnership. This case provides concrete examples of the expropriation risks joint venture partners face when unfamiliar with pyramidal group ownership structures.


Case Authors : Susan Perkins, Sachin Waikar

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Financial management, International business, Strategy




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Citigroup's Shareholder Tango in Brazil (A) Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10027037) -10027037 - -
Year 1 3463357 -6563680 3463357 0.9434 3267318
Year 2 3967549 -2596131 7430906 0.89 3531104
Year 3 3951763 1355632 11382669 0.8396 3317976
Year 4 3225684 4581316 14608353 0.7921 2555044
TOTAL 14608353 12671443


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2644406

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Dantas's Citigroup's have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Dantas's Citigroup's shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Citigroup's Shareholder Tango in Brazil (A)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Dantas's Citigroup's often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Dantas's Citigroup's needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10027037) -10027037 - -
Year 1 3463357 -6563680 3463357 0.8696 3011615
Year 2 3967549 -2596131 7430906 0.7561 3000037
Year 3 3951763 1355632 11382669 0.6575 2598348
Year 4 3225684 4581316 14608353 0.5718 1844295
TOTAL 10454295


The Net NPV after 4 years is 427258

(10454295 - 10027037 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10027037) -10027037 - -
Year 1 3463357 -6563680 3463357 0.8333 2886131
Year 2 3967549 -2596131 7430906 0.6944 2755242
Year 3 3951763 1355632 11382669 0.5787 2286900
Year 4 3225684 4581316 14608353 0.4823 1555596
TOTAL 9483869


The Net NPV after 4 years is -543168

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9483869 - 10027037 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Dantas's Citigroup's to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Dantas's Citigroup's has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Dantas's Citigroup's can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Dantas's Citigroup's, then the stock price of the Dantas's Citigroup's should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Dantas's Citigroup's should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Susan Perkins, Sachin Waikar (2018), "Citigroup's Shareholder Tango in Brazil (A) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.