California High-Speed Rail Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for California High-Speed Rail case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. California High-Speed Rail case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Jose Gomez-Ibanez. The California High-Speed Rail (referred as “Rail Speed” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management, Government, Operations management, Project management, Strategic planning.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of California High-Speed Rail Case Study

In January 2010 the California High Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA) was waiting to hear whether the Obama administration would approve its application for $4.7 billion in federal stimulus funding to begin the construction of a $50 billion, 800-mile high-speed rail corridor connecting all of the state's major regions and cities. In November 2008 California voters had already approved Proposition 1A authorizing the state to issue $9.95 billion in bonds toward construction of the system's initial segment running 465 miles from San Francisco to Los Angeles-Anaheim in Orange County. This case describes the CHSRA's planning efforts and the controversies that arose over the alignment, the demand projections, the financial plan, and the social benefit-cost analysis. HKS Case Number 1935.0

Case Authors : Jose Gomez-Ibanez

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Financial management, Government, Operations management, Project management, Strategic planning

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for California High-Speed Rail Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009950)	-10009950	-	-
Year 1	3455959	-6553991	3455959	0.9434	3260339
Year 2	3974009	-2579982	7429968	0.89	3536854
Year 3	3938699	1358717	11368667	0.8396	3307008
Year 4	3226830	4585547	14595497	0.7921	2555952
TOTAL			14595497		12660152

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2650202

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Payback Period
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Rail Speed have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Rail Speed shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of California High-Speed Rail

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Rail Speed often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Rail Speed needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009950)	-10009950	-	-
Year 1	3455959	-6553991	3455959	0.8696	3005182
Year 2	3974009	-2579982	7429968	0.7561	3004922
Year 3	3938699	1358717	11368667	0.6575	2589759
Year 4	3226830	4585547	14595497	0.5718	1844951
TOTAL					10444813

The Net NPV after 4 years is 434863

(10444813 - 10009950 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009950)	-10009950	-	-
Year 1	3455959	-6553991	3455959	0.8333	2879966
Year 2	3974009	-2579982	7429968	0.6944	2759728
Year 3	3938699	1358717	11368667	0.5787	2279340
Year 4	3226830	4585547	14595497	0.4823	1556149
TOTAL					9475183

The Net NPV after 4 years is -534767

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9475183 - 10009950 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Rail Speed to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Rail Speed has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Rail Speed can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Rail Speed, then the stock price of the Rail Speed should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Rail Speed should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of California High-Speed Rail

References & Further Readings

Jose Gomez-Ibanez (2018), "California High-Speed Rail Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.