Aspect Medical Systems Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Aspect Medical Systems case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Aspect Medical Systems case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Richard Bohmer, Naomi Atkins. The Aspect Medical Systems (referred as “Chamoun Monitor” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Technology & Operations. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Managing people, Product development, Technology.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Aspect Medical Systems Case Study

Entrepreneur Nassib Chamoun has created an innovative anesthesiology device that monitors patients' consciousness levels during surgery. This case tracks how Chamoun and his executive team built the infrastructure of the company and actively managed the adoption process through product design and development, clinical trials, close work with regulatory agencies, selection of appropriate lead users, and active management of the learning process for the lead users. Now faced with a relatively unfavorable market and increasing competition, Chamoun must decide how to increase current and future adoption of the monitor. Three options are presented: contracting for OEM deals with large, well-established distributors; expanding the range of services offered to include other aspects of the perioperative process; and exploring the use of the monitor in other clinical areas such as Alzheimer's.

Case Authors : Richard Bohmer, Naomi Atkins

Topic : Technology & Operations

Related Areas : Managing people, Product development, Technology

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Aspect Medical Systems Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10017202)	-10017202	-	-
Year 1	3457491	-6559711	3457491	0.9434	3261784
Year 2	3962330	-2597381	7419821	0.89	3526460
Year 3	3959697	1362316	11379518	0.8396	3324638
Year 4	3237382	4599698	14616900	0.7921	2564310
TOTAL			14616900		12677191

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2659989

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Chamoun Monitor have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Chamoun Monitor shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Aspect Medical Systems

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Technology & Operations Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Chamoun Monitor often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Chamoun Monitor needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10017202)	-10017202	-	-
Year 1	3457491	-6559711	3457491	0.8696	3006514
Year 2	3962330	-2597381	7419821	0.7561	2996091
Year 3	3959697	1362316	11379518	0.6575	2603565
Year 4	3237382	4599698	14616900	0.5718	1850984
TOTAL					10457153

The Net NPV after 4 years is 439951

(10457153 - 10017202 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10017202)	-10017202	-	-
Year 1	3457491	-6559711	3457491	0.8333	2881243
Year 2	3962330	-2597381	7419821	0.6944	2751618
Year 3	3959697	1362316	11379518	0.5787	2291491
Year 4	3237382	4599698	14616900	0.4823	1561237
TOTAL					9485589

The Net NPV after 4 years is -531613

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9485589 - 10017202 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Chamoun Monitor to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Chamoun Monitor has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Chamoun Monitor can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Chamoun Monitor, then the stock price of the Chamoun Monitor should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Chamoun Monitor should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Aspect Medical Systems

References & Further Readings

Richard Bohmer, Naomi Atkins (2018), "Aspect Medical Systems Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.