The Absheron Project: BP's Production Sharing Agreement in Azerbaijan Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for The Absheron Project: BP's Production Sharing Agreement in Azerbaijan case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. The Absheron Project: BP's Production Sharing Agreement in Azerbaijan case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Kenneth Eades, Sam Weitkemper, Emily Rees Kasradze. The The Absheron Project: BP's Production Sharing Agreement in Azerbaijan (referred as “Azerbaijan Cash” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management, Joint ventures.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of The Absheron Project: BP's Production Sharing Agreement in Azerbaijan Case Study

This case is used in a Darden second-year elective in corporate finance, "Corporate Financial Policies." It asks students to analyze the cash flows estimated for a production sharing agreement (PSA) between BP and the Azerbaijan government targeted for signing by year-end 2014. The primary relationship is a joint venture (JV) between BP and the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR). The JV is entitled to recover operating costs and capital costs from the proceeds of sales of the early production of the project and share profits earned from production, called the profit petroleum (PP), with Azerbaijan after the cost recoveries. Students are provided a detailed cash flow model for the project and for BP's equity investment and are asked to explain how the value estimates correlate with the risks assumed by the respective parties. This case is appropriate for students who have studied the principles of discounted cash flow and cost of capital. It is best positioned as part of a first-year MBA finance course as the last case in a module related to cash flow analysis. The case can also be taught in an MBA elective containing advanced corporate finance topics. It would be of special interest to students planning for a career related to energy, banking, or consulting, and also relevant for students interested in international business.

Case Authors : Kenneth Eades, Sam Weitkemper, Emily Rees Kasradze

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Financial management, Joint ventures

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for The Absheron Project: BP's Production Sharing Agreement in Azerbaijan Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024532)	-10024532	-	-
Year 1	3457496	-6567036	3457496	0.9434	3261789
Year 2	3979087	-2587949	7436583	0.89	3541373
Year 3	3946749	1358800	11383332	0.8396	3313767
Year 4	3247786	4606586	14631118	0.7921	2572551
TOTAL			14631118		12689479

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2664947

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Payback Period
3. Profitability Index
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Azerbaijan Cash shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Azerbaijan Cash have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of The Absheron Project: BP's Production Sharing Agreement in Azerbaijan

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Azerbaijan Cash often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Azerbaijan Cash needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024532)	-10024532	-	-
Year 1	3457496	-6567036	3457496	0.8696	3006518
Year 2	3979087	-2587949	7436583	0.7561	3008761
Year 3	3946749	1358800	11383332	0.6575	2595052
Year 4	3247786	4606586	14631118	0.5718	1856932
TOTAL					10467263

The Net NPV after 4 years is 442731

(10467263 - 10024532 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024532)	-10024532	-	-
Year 1	3457496	-6567036	3457496	0.8333	2881247
Year 2	3979087	-2587949	7436583	0.6944	2763255
Year 3	3946749	1358800	11383332	0.5787	2283998
Year 4	3247786	4606586	14631118	0.4823	1566255
TOTAL					9494755

The Net NPV after 4 years is -529777

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9494755 - 10024532 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Azerbaijan Cash to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Azerbaijan Cash has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Azerbaijan Cash can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Azerbaijan Cash, then the stock price of the Azerbaijan Cash should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Azerbaijan Cash should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of The Absheron Project: BP's Production Sharing Agreement in Azerbaijan

References & Further Readings

Kenneth Eades, Sam Weitkemper, Emily Rees Kasradze (2018), "The Absheron Project: BP's Production Sharing Agreement in Azerbaijan Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.