UAL, 2004: Pulling Out of Bankruptcy Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for UAL, 2004: Pulling Out of Bankruptcy case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. UAL, 2004: Pulling Out of Bankruptcy case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Daniel B. Bergstresser, Kenneth A. Froot, Darren R. Smart. The UAL, 2004: Pulling Out of Bankruptcy (referred as “Ual Atsb” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Executive compensation, Personnel policies, Reorganization.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

---

Case Description of UAL, 2004: Pulling Out of Bankruptcy Case Study

UAL is a large air transportation company with roots that go back to the 1920s. As a legacy carrier, going back to before the 1978 deregulation of air transportation markets, United Airlines is burdened with cost structures that make it difficult to compete with newer competitors. In addition, UAL has the burden of $7.6 billion in unfunded pension obligations and $2 billion in unfunded retiree health obligations. In June 2004, UAL is still operating under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, which began December 2002. It has needed extensions of the exclusivity period from the bankruptcy court. UAL's plan of reorganization is predicated on receiving $1.8 billion in loan guarantees from the Air Transport Stabilization Board (ATSB). But its request for loan guarantees from the ATSB was recently rejected. The company must decide what to do next and how to emerge from bankruptcy.

Case Authors : Daniel B. Bergstresser, Kenneth A. Froot, Darren R. Smart

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Executive compensation, Personnel policies, Reorganization

---

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for UAL, 2004: Pulling Out of Bankruptcy Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10001550)	-10001550	-	-
Year 1	3448466	-6553084	3448466	0.9434	3253270
Year 2	3953281	-2599803	7401747	0.89	3518406
Year 3	3951049	1351246	11352796	0.8396	3317377
Year 4	3232981	4584227	14585777	0.7921	2560824
TOTAL			14585777		12649877

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2648327

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

---

Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Profitability Index
3. Net Present Value
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Ual Atsb have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Ual Atsb shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

---

Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of UAL, 2004: Pulling Out of Bankruptcy

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Ual Atsb often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Ual Atsb needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10001550)	-10001550	-	-
Year 1	3448466	-6553084	3448466	0.8696	2998666
Year 2	3953281	-2599803	7401747	0.7561	2989248
Year 3	3951049	1351246	11352796	0.6575	2597879
Year 4	3232981	4584227	14585777	0.5718	1848467
TOTAL					10434261

The Net NPV after 4 years is 432711

(10434261 - 10001550 )

---

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10001550)	-10001550	-	-
Year 1	3448466	-6553084	3448466	0.8333	2873722
Year 2	3953281	-2599803	7401747	0.6944	2745334
Year 3	3951049	1351246	11352796	0.5787	2286487
Year 4	3232981	4584227	14585777	0.4823	1559115
TOTAL					9464657

The Net NPV after 4 years is -536893

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9464657 - 10001550 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Ual Atsb to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Ual Atsb has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Ual Atsb can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Ual Atsb, then the stock price of the Ual Atsb should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Ual Atsb should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

---

Negotiation Strategy of UAL, 2004: Pulling Out of Bankruptcy

References & Further Readings

Daniel B. Bergstresser, Kenneth A. Froot, Darren R. Smart (2018), "UAL, 2004: Pulling Out of Bankruptcy Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.