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Unsafe for Children: Mattel's Toy Recalls and Supply Chain Management Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Unsafe for Children: Mattel's Toy Recalls and Supply Chain Management case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Unsafe for Children: Mattel's Toy Recalls and Supply Chain Management case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Hau Lee, Mitchell M. Tseng, David W. Hoyt. The Unsafe for Children: Mattel's Toy Recalls and Supply Chain Management (referred as “Recalls Toys” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, International business, Manufacturing, Organizational culture, Product development, Supply chain.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Unsafe for Children: Mattel's Toy Recalls and Supply Chain Management Case Study


In August and September 2007, Mattel made a series of product recalls, totaling more than 20 million toys. The recalls were for excessive lead and for magnets that could become loose. All of the recalled toys had been made in China. The Mattel recalls followed on the heels of a number of high profile safety problems with Chinese imports, including contaminated pet food and toothpaste, defective tires, and lead-painted toys. The recalls sparked intense criticism of Mattel and its Chinese supply chain, despite the fact that more than 85 percent of the recalled toys were due to design problems (magnets), not the result of improper manufacturing (use of lead paint). The case provides a basis for discussion of outsourcing and supply chain management. The basic toy manufacturing process is fairly simple, providing a forum for discussing these issues without the complication of advanced manufacturing technology or an involved supply chain. In this case, supply chain defects, such as the use of lead paint by vendors, can have severe consequences. The supply chain must be designed to prevent these defects. The case enables discussion of why companies outsource, managing a supply chain, and the appropriate use of inspection and testing. It also provides the opportunity to examine response to a crisis situation, and the relationship between a company and government.


Case Authors : Hau Lee, Mitchell M. Tseng, David W. Hoyt

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : International business, Manufacturing, Organizational culture, Product development, Supply chain




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Unsafe for Children: Mattel's Toy Recalls and Supply Chain Management Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10007033) -10007033 - -
Year 1 3447103 -6559930 3447103 0.9434 3251984
Year 2 3968866 -2591064 7415969 0.89 3532277
Year 3 3961768 1370704 11377737 0.8396 3326377
Year 4 3245733 4616437 14623470 0.7921 2570925
TOTAL 14623470 12681562




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2674529

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Profitability Index
3. Net Present Value
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Recalls Toys shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Recalls Toys have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Unsafe for Children: Mattel's Toy Recalls and Supply Chain Management

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Recalls Toys often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Recalls Toys needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10007033) -10007033 - -
Year 1 3447103 -6559930 3447103 0.8696 2997481
Year 2 3968866 -2591064 7415969 0.7561 3001033
Year 3 3961768 1370704 11377737 0.6575 2604927
Year 4 3245733 4616437 14623470 0.5718 1855758
TOTAL 10459199


The Net NPV after 4 years is 452166

(10459199 - 10007033 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10007033) -10007033 - -
Year 1 3447103 -6559930 3447103 0.8333 2872586
Year 2 3968866 -2591064 7415969 0.6944 2756157
Year 3 3961768 1370704 11377737 0.5787 2292690
Year 4 3245733 4616437 14623470 0.4823 1565265
TOTAL 9486697


The Net NPV after 4 years is -520336

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9486697 - 10007033 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Recalls Toys to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Recalls Toys has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Recalls Toys can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Recalls Toys, then the stock price of the Recalls Toys should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Recalls Toys should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Unsafe for Children: Mattel's Toy Recalls and Supply Chain Management

References & Further Readings

Hau Lee, Mitchell M. Tseng, David W. Hoyt (2018), "Unsafe for Children: Mattel's Toy Recalls and Supply Chain Management Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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