Solving the Problems of New Product Forecasting Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Solving the Problems of New Product Forecasting case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Solving the Problems of New Product Forecasting case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Kenneth B Kahn. The Solving the Problems of New Product Forecasting (referred as “Forecasting Forecast” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Forecasting, Marketing.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Solving the Problems of New Product Forecasting Case Study

An important consideration in solving the problems of new product forecasting entails distinguishing new product forecasting from the process of forecasting existing products. Particular differences between the two can be identified across the dimensions of data, analytics, forecast, plan, and measurement. For example, new product forecasting features little to no data with which to begin the process, whereas data are available and accessible in forecasting existing products. The minimal data situation requires a qualitative approach that lays out assumptions to provide transparency; in contrast, quantitative techniques are predominantly used when forecasting existing products. Different assumptions help construct a range of new product forecast outcomes on which company contingencies can be planned versus a singular point forecast for an existing product. And the measure of forecast accuracy, which is a common metric in forecasting existing products, must give way to meaningfulness so that the new product forecast is actionable. Recognizing new product forecasting as a cross-functional, company-wide process helps resolve the problems of new product forecasting. While incapable of remedying all problems, a properly understood and organized new product forecasting effort can help the company better prepare, execute, and support a new product launch, affording a greater propensity to achieve new product success.

Case Authors : Kenneth B Kahn

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Forecasting, Marketing

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Solving the Problems of New Product Forecasting Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10011287)	-10011287	-	-
Year 1	3471272	-6540015	3471272	0.9434	3274785
Year 2	3968252	-2571763	7439524	0.89	3531730
Year 3	3966828	1395065	11406352	0.8396	3330625
Year 4	3236986	4632051	14643338	0.7921	2563996
TOTAL			14643338		12701136

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2689849

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Forecasting Forecast shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Forecasting Forecast have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Solving the Problems of New Product Forecasting

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Forecasting Forecast often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Forecasting Forecast needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10011287)	-10011287	-	-
Year 1	3471272	-6540015	3471272	0.8696	3018497
Year 2	3968252	-2571763	7439524	0.7561	3000569
Year 3	3966828	1395065	11406352	0.6575	2608254
Year 4	3236986	4632051	14643338	0.5718	1850757
TOTAL					10478077

The Net NPV after 4 years is 466790

(10478077 - 10011287 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10011287)	-10011287	-	-
Year 1	3471272	-6540015	3471272	0.8333	2892727
Year 2	3968252	-2571763	7439524	0.6944	2755731
Year 3	3966828	1395065	11406352	0.5787	2295618
Year 4	3236986	4632051	14643338	0.4823	1561046
TOTAL					9505122

The Net NPV after 4 years is -506165

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9505122 - 10011287 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Forecasting Forecast to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Forecasting Forecast has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Forecasting Forecast can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Forecasting Forecast, then the stock price of the Forecasting Forecast should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Forecasting Forecast should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Solving the Problems of New Product Forecasting

References & Further Readings

Kenneth B Kahn (2018), "Solving the Problems of New Product Forecasting Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.