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Securicor Wireless Networks: February 1996 Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Securicor Wireless Networks: February 1996 case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Securicor Wireless Networks: February 1996 case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by G. Felda Hardymon, Bill Wasik. The Securicor Wireless Networks: February 1996 (referred as “Securicor Swn” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Innovation & Entrepreneurship. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Organizational culture, Technology, Venture capital.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Securicor Wireless Networks: February 1996 Case Study


Securicor Wireless (SWN) sold software products to wireless telephone carriers. The company was incorporated in January of 1995 as a 40%-owned subsidiary of Securicor Telesciences (STI), itself a wholly-owned subsidiary of British security giant Securicor PLC. Just over a year later, in February of 1996, SWN had the opportunity to merge with STI, creating a 70%-owned subsidiary of Securicor PLC and bringing it further under the umbrella of the British conglomerate. In presenting the events leading up to this decision, this case examines the dynamics of starting up a company with a large corporate investor, including the interplay between such a corporate partner and their traditional venture capitalist co-investors. Also touches on issues of corporate culture and differences in attitudes between U.S.-and U.K.-based companies/investors.


Case Authors : G. Felda Hardymon, Bill Wasik

Topic : Innovation & Entrepreneurship

Related Areas : Organizational culture, Technology, Venture capital




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Securicor Wireless Networks: February 1996 Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10011355) -10011355 - -
Year 1 3448977 -6562378 3448977 0.9434 3253752
Year 2 3966090 -2596288 7415067 0.89 3529806
Year 3 3946549 1350261 11361616 0.8396 3313599
Year 4 3247021 4597282 14608637 0.7921 2571945
TOTAL 14608637 12669101


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2657746

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Securicor Swn have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Securicor Swn shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Securicor Wireless Networks: February 1996

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Innovation & Entrepreneurship Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Securicor Swn often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Securicor Swn needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10011355) -10011355 - -
Year 1 3448977 -6562378 3448977 0.8696 2999110
Year 2 3966090 -2596288 7415067 0.7561 2998934
Year 3 3946549 1350261 11361616 0.6575 2594920
Year 4 3247021 4597282 14608637 0.5718 1856495
TOTAL 10449459


The Net NPV after 4 years is 438104

(10449459 - 10011355 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10011355) -10011355 - -
Year 1 3448977 -6562378 3448977 0.8333 2874148
Year 2 3966090 -2596288 7415067 0.6944 2754229
Year 3 3946549 1350261 11361616 0.5787 2283883
Year 4 3247021 4597282 14608637 0.4823 1565886
TOTAL 9478145


The Net NPV after 4 years is -533210

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9478145 - 10011355 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Securicor Swn to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Securicor Swn has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Securicor Swn can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Securicor Swn, then the stock price of the Securicor Swn should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Securicor Swn should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

G. Felda Hardymon, Bill Wasik (2018), "Securicor Wireless Networks: February 1996 Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.