×




Kiwi Transportation Company Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Kiwi Transportation Company case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Kiwi Transportation Company case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Robert Letovsky. The Kiwi Transportation Company (referred as “Kiwi Ferry” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Innovation & Entrepreneurship. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Kiwi Transportation Company Case Study


The transition of a company from father to son can often lead to new strategic directions for a company. New leaders have to face issues carried over from the past and confront new challenges facing the business. One of the most fundamental issues 2nd generation leaders have to deal with is the evaluation of new opportunities. Which ones are feasible, which ones are not, and how do these opportunities impact the business, both financially and in terms of its overall strategic position? This case focuses on a rather unique business - an urban ferry and tour boat operator - as its new CEO evaluates several options for reversing a downward trend in profitability. Besides quantitative analysis, what qualitative factors have to be considered in choosing the best path forward? Students are given the opportunity to develop an analytic model based on guidelines available in the Instructor's Manual. The case also allows students to consider stakeholder impacts for several possible strategies.


Case Authors : Robert Letovsky

Topic : Innovation & Entrepreneurship

Related Areas :




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Kiwi Transportation Company Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10007353) -10007353 - -
Year 1 3459881 -6547472 3459881 0.9434 3264039
Year 2 3978856 -2568616 7438737 0.89 3541168
Year 3 3941560 1372944 11380297 0.8396 3309410
Year 4 3241076 4614020 14621373 0.7921 2567236
TOTAL 14621373 12681852


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2674499

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Kiwi Ferry have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Kiwi Ferry shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Kiwi Transportation Company

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Innovation & Entrepreneurship Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Kiwi Ferry often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Kiwi Ferry needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10007353) -10007353 - -
Year 1 3459881 -6547472 3459881 0.8696 3008592
Year 2 3978856 -2568616 7438737 0.7561 3008587
Year 3 3941560 1372944 11380297 0.6575 2591640
Year 4 3241076 4614020 14621373 0.5718 1853096
TOTAL 10461914


The Net NPV after 4 years is 454561

(10461914 - 10007353 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10007353) -10007353 - -
Year 1 3459881 -6547472 3459881 0.8333 2883234
Year 2 3978856 -2568616 7438737 0.6944 2763094
Year 3 3941560 1372944 11380297 0.5787 2280995
Year 4 3241076 4614020 14621373 0.4823 1563019
TOTAL 9490343


The Net NPV after 4 years is -517010

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9490343 - 10007353 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Kiwi Ferry to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Kiwi Ferry has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Kiwi Ferry can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Kiwi Ferry, then the stock price of the Kiwi Ferry should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Kiwi Ferry should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Robert Letovsky (2018), "Kiwi Transportation Company Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.