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SpeedSim (A): Made to Exit! Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for SpeedSim (A): Made to Exit! case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. SpeedSim (A): Made to Exit! case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Naeem Zafar. The SpeedSim (A): Made to Exit! (referred as “Speedsim Acquisition” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Innovation & Entrepreneurship. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Venture capital.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of SpeedSim (A): Made to Exit! Case Study


The SpeedSim case study focuses on how mergers and acquisitions work in startup and entrepreneurial environments. It describes how an intelligent East Coast engineer built an extremely frugal company with a goal for acquisition and how the SpeedSim team masterfully executed and maximized their return by starting, growing, and selling a company. The case analyzes the process of how small companies position themselves to be acquired and how an acquirer assesses a company. The case can be used for mergers and acquisition and exit discussions, as well as for culture and organizational behavior discussions for entrepreneurship curriculums. Please note: This case also has a (B) supplement available. The A case discusses how SpeedSim was built and what process they went through to get acquired. The B case addresses what happened after the acquisition and deals with the perspectives of the players and the challenges of the integration. Students are asked to evaluate how a company should go about establishing itself to be acquired and what decisions should be made in the earlier days of the startup. Students will also discuss how to create a successful acquisition and what factors contribute to the success of such an acquisition.


Case Authors : Naeem Zafar

Topic : Innovation & Entrepreneurship

Related Areas : Venture capital




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for SpeedSim (A): Made to Exit! Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10000442) -10000442 - -
Year 1 3462961 -6537481 3462961 0.9434 3266944
Year 2 3955207 -2582274 7418168 0.89 3520120
Year 3 3955139 1372865 11373307 0.8396 3320811
Year 4 3248945 4621810 14622252 0.7921 2573469
TOTAL 14622252 12681344




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2680902

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Profitability Index
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Speedsim Acquisition have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Speedsim Acquisition shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of SpeedSim (A): Made to Exit!

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Innovation & Entrepreneurship Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Speedsim Acquisition often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Speedsim Acquisition needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10000442) -10000442 - -
Year 1 3462961 -6537481 3462961 0.8696 3011270
Year 2 3955207 -2582274 7418168 0.7561 2990705
Year 3 3955139 1372865 11373307 0.6575 2600568
Year 4 3248945 4621810 14622252 0.5718 1857595
TOTAL 10460138


The Net NPV after 4 years is 459696

(10460138 - 10000442 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10000442) -10000442 - -
Year 1 3462961 -6537481 3462961 0.8333 2885801
Year 2 3955207 -2582274 7418168 0.6944 2746672
Year 3 3955139 1372865 11373307 0.5787 2288854
Year 4 3248945 4621810 14622252 0.4823 1566814
TOTAL 9488140


The Net NPV after 4 years is -512302

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9488140 - 10000442 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Speedsim Acquisition to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Speedsim Acquisition has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Speedsim Acquisition can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Speedsim Acquisition, then the stock price of the Speedsim Acquisition should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Speedsim Acquisition should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of SpeedSim (A): Made to Exit!

References & Further Readings

Naeem Zafar (2018), "SpeedSim (A): Made to Exit! Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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