Winning Hearts and Minds: Reforming the Providence School District (A) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Winning Hearts and Minds: Reforming the Providence School District (A) case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Winning Hearts and Minds: Reforming the Providence School District (A) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Susan Rosengrant, Dean Williams. The Winning Hearts and Minds: Reforming the Providence School District (A) (referred as “Johnson Superintendent” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Communication, Government, Labor, Leadership, Project management, Social enterprise, Strategic planning.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

Case Description of Winning Hearts and Minds: Reforming the Providence School District (A) Case Study

In August, 2002, Melody Johnson, the deputy superintendent of the Providence, Rhode Island, School District, was hastily appointed acting superintendent, in the wake of the resignation of her predecessor and close colleague Diana Lam. Lam and Johnson together had been embarked, over the previous three years, on an ambitious reform plan to upgrade the low-performing system. Despite some indicators of improvement, however, Johnson knew that there remained significant resistance to the changes-as evidenced, in part, by a bitter contract dispute recently settled with the system's teachers. This case describes the challenge facing Melody Johnson as she sought to gain rank-and-file support for reform, in the immediate months after her appointment as superintendent in her own right. It focuses on specific steps that she considered to gain that support, without compromising reforms including, radically, a day in which classes would be cancelled so that she and others could address the teaching force as a whole. This public leadership case is designed to highlight the choices and techniques of "adaptive leadership", as described in the work of Kennedy School professor Ronald Heifetz, "Leadership Without Easy Answers" (Belknap Press, September 1994). See also case # 1690.0. HKS Case Number 1689.0

Case Authors : Susan Rosengrant, Dean Williams

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Communication, Government, Labor, Leadership, Project management, Social enterprise, Strategic planning

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Winning Hearts and Minds: Reforming the Providence School District (A) Case Study

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10011611) -10011611 - -
Year 1 3463491 -6548120 3463491 0.9434 3267444
Year 2 3960485 -2587635 7423976 0.89 3524818
Year 3 3945844 1358209 11369820 0.8396 3313007
Year 4 3236954 4595163 14606774 0.7921 2563971
TOTAL 14606774 12669239

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2657628

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Johnson Superintendent have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Johnson Superintendent shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Winning Hearts and Minds: Reforming the Providence School District (A)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Johnson Superintendent often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Johnson Superintendent needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10011611) -10011611 - -
Year 1 3463491 -6548120 3463491 0.8696 3011731
Year 2 3960485 -2587635 7423976 0.7561 2994696
Year 3 3945844 1358209 11369820 0.6575 2594456
Year 4 3236954 4595163 14606774 0.5718 1850739
TOTAL 10451622

The Net NPV after 4 years is 440011

(10451622 - 10011611 )

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10011611) -10011611 - -
Year 1 3463491 -6548120 3463491 0.8333 2886243
Year 2 3960485 -2587635 7423976 0.6944 2750337
Year 3 3945844 1358209 11369820 0.5787 2283475
Year 4 3236954 4595163 14606774 0.4823 1561031
TOTAL 9481085

The Net NPV after 4 years is -530526

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9481085 - 10011611 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Johnson Superintendent to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Johnson Superintendent has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Johnson Superintendent can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Johnson Superintendent, then the stock price of the Johnson Superintendent should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Johnson Superintendent should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

References & Further Readings

Susan Rosengrant, Dean Williams (2018), "Winning Hearts and Minds: Reforming the Providence School District (A) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.