×




Sugar Bowl Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Sugar Bowl case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Sugar Bowl case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Richard G. Hamermesh, Alisa Zalosh. The Sugar Bowl (referred as “Givens Bowl” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Crisis management, Entrepreneurship, Financial analysis, Financial management, Marketing, Operations management, Organizational structure, Strategy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Sugar Bowl Case Study


Shelby Givens, a recent business school graduate, returned home to Raleigh, North Carolina to help rescue her family's ailing and outdated bowling alley, Westlake Lanes. Although she cut costs and addressed inefficiencies, moving the business from near-bankruptcy to profitability in nine months, market conditions threatened the long-term viability of the business. Givens then sold her family on a new, more youth-oriented concept, an urban lounge called Sugar Bowl that could generate sizable revenues from the food and beverage businesses already embedded in Westlake Lanes. The case follows Givens as she builds Sugar Bowl into a turnaround story through shrewd decision-making in finance, operations, and marketing while contending constantly with challenging surprises and disappointments. The case also captures Givens's reflections on how the entrepreneurial drive that has motivated her. Sugar Bowl may be taught alone or after "Westlake Lanes" (4431), which follows Givens through the initial turnaround process.


Case Authors : Richard G. Hamermesh, Alisa Zalosh

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Crisis management, Entrepreneurship, Financial analysis, Financial management, Marketing, Operations management, Organizational structure, Strategy




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Sugar Bowl Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10018241) -10018241 - -
Year 1 3449494 -6568747 3449494 0.9434 3254240
Year 2 3967994 -2600753 7417488 0.89 3531501
Year 3 3950775 1350022 11368263 0.8396 3317147
Year 4 3222530 4572552 14590793 0.7921 2552546
TOTAL 14590793 12655433


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2637192

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Payback Period
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Givens Bowl have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Givens Bowl shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Sugar Bowl

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Givens Bowl often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Givens Bowl needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10018241) -10018241 - -
Year 1 3449494 -6568747 3449494 0.8696 2999560
Year 2 3967994 -2600753 7417488 0.7561 3000374
Year 3 3950775 1350022 11368263 0.6575 2597699
Year 4 3222530 4572552 14590793 0.5718 1842492
TOTAL 10440124


The Net NPV after 4 years is 421883

(10440124 - 10018241 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10018241) -10018241 - -
Year 1 3449494 -6568747 3449494 0.8333 2874578
Year 2 3967994 -2600753 7417488 0.6944 2755551
Year 3 3950775 1350022 11368263 0.5787 2286328
Year 4 3222530 4572552 14590793 0.4823 1554075
TOTAL 9470533


The Net NPV after 4 years is -547708

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9470533 - 10018241 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Givens Bowl to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Givens Bowl has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Givens Bowl can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Givens Bowl, then the stock price of the Givens Bowl should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Givens Bowl should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Richard G. Hamermesh, Alisa Zalosh (2018), "Sugar Bowl Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.