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Rob Parson at Morgan Stanley (C) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Rob Parson at Morgan Stanley (C) case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Rob Parson at Morgan Stanley (C) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by M. Diane Burton. The Rob Parson at Morgan Stanley (C) (referred as “Parson's Parson” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Organizational Development. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Communication, Human resource management, Organizational culture.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Rob Parson at Morgan Stanley (C) Case Study


A year after Rob Parson's manager decided to postpone Parson's promotion, Parson's new manager Gary Stuart faces the decision of promotion again. Stuart considers whether the efforts Parson had made were sufficient. Teaching purpose: To explore managerial problems associated with performance appraisal and performance management.


Case Authors : M. Diane Burton

Topic : Organizational Development

Related Areas : Communication, Human resource management, Organizational culture




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Rob Parson at Morgan Stanley (C) Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10018110) -10018110 - -
Year 1 3466994 -6551116 3466994 0.9434 3270749
Year 2 3954923 -2596193 7421917 0.89 3519867
Year 3 3945041 1348848 11366958 0.8396 3312332
Year 4 3226510 4575358 14593468 0.7921 2555698
TOTAL 14593468 12658647


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2640537

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Profitability Index
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Parson's Parson shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Parson's Parson have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Rob Parson at Morgan Stanley (C)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Organizational Development Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Parson's Parson often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Parson's Parson needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10018110) -10018110 - -
Year 1 3466994 -6551116 3466994 0.8696 3014777
Year 2 3954923 -2596193 7421917 0.7561 2990490
Year 3 3945041 1348848 11366958 0.6575 2593928
Year 4 3226510 4575358 14593468 0.5718 1844768
TOTAL 10443963


The Net NPV after 4 years is 425853

(10443963 - 10018110 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10018110) -10018110 - -
Year 1 3466994 -6551116 3466994 0.8333 2889162
Year 2 3954923 -2596193 7421917 0.6944 2746474
Year 3 3945041 1348848 11366958 0.5787 2283010
Year 4 3226510 4575358 14593468 0.4823 1555994
TOTAL 9474640


The Net NPV after 4 years is -543470

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9474640 - 10018110 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Parson's Parson to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Parson's Parson has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Parson's Parson can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Parson's Parson, then the stock price of the Parson's Parson should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Parson's Parson should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

M. Diane Burton (2018), "Rob Parson at Morgan Stanley (C) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.