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Orientation for Viewing, Spanish Version Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Orientation for Viewing, Spanish Version case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Orientation for Viewing, Spanish Version case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Michael A. Roberto. The Orientation for Viewing, Spanish Version (referred as “Vietnam Johnson” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Organizational Development. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Decision making, Leadership, Leading teams.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Orientation for Viewing, Spanish Version Case Study


Prepares students to view "Path to War"--a movie that depicts the decision-making processes employed by President Lyndon Johnson and his advisers during the Vietnam War. Provides a brief history of the conflict in Vietnam prior to Johnson's decision to commit American combat troops and biographical information about Johnson and the other key participants in the decision-making process.


Case Authors : Michael A. Roberto

Topic : Organizational Development

Related Areas : Decision making, Leadership, Leading teams




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Orientation for Viewing, Spanish Version Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10018464) -10018464 - -
Year 1 3452952 -6565512 3452952 0.9434 3257502
Year 2 3970401 -2595111 7423353 0.89 3533643
Year 3 3946399 1351288 11369752 0.8396 3313473
Year 4 3247292 4598580 14617044 0.7921 2572159
TOTAL 14617044 12676777


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2658313

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Payback Period
3. Profitability Index
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Vietnam Johnson have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Vietnam Johnson shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Orientation for Viewing, Spanish Version

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Organizational Development Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Vietnam Johnson often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Vietnam Johnson needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10018464) -10018464 - -
Year 1 3452952 -6565512 3452952 0.8696 3002567
Year 2 3970401 -2595111 7423353 0.7561 3002194
Year 3 3946399 1351288 11369752 0.6575 2594821
Year 4 3247292 4598580 14617044 0.5718 1856650
TOTAL 10456232


The Net NPV after 4 years is 437768

(10456232 - 10018464 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10018464) -10018464 - -
Year 1 3452952 -6565512 3452952 0.8333 2877460
Year 2 3970401 -2595111 7423353 0.6944 2757223
Year 3 3946399 1351288 11369752 0.5787 2283796
Year 4 3247292 4598580 14617044 0.4823 1566017
TOTAL 9484495


The Net NPV after 4 years is -533969

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9484495 - 10018464 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Vietnam Johnson to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Vietnam Johnson has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Vietnam Johnson can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Vietnam Johnson, then the stock price of the Vietnam Johnson should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Vietnam Johnson should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Michael A. Roberto (2018), "Orientation for Viewing, Spanish Version Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.