Ethics of Offshoring: Novo Nordisk and Clinical Trials in Emerging Economies Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Ethics of Offshoring: Novo Nordisk and Clinical Trials in Emerging Economies case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Ethics of Offshoring: Novo Nordisk and Clinical Trials in Emerging Economies case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Klaus Meyer. The Ethics of Offshoring: Novo Nordisk and Clinical Trials in Emerging Economies (referred as “Nordisk Novo” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Organizational Development. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Ethics, Operations management, Research & development.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Ethics of Offshoring: Novo Nordisk and Clinical Trials in Emerging Economies Case Study

The case outlines the conflicting ethical demands on a Danish pharmaceuticals company, Novo Nordisk, that is operating globally and is aspiring to high standards of corporate social responsibility. A recent report alleges that multinational pharmaceutical companies routinely conduct trials in developing countries under alleged unethical conditions. The company's director reflects on how to respond to a request from a journalist for an interview. This triggers a discussion on the appropriate ethical principles and how to communicate them. As a company emphasizing corporate responsibility, the interaction with the media presents both opportunities and risks to Novo Nordisk. The case focuses on clinical trials that are required to attain regulatory approval in, for example, Europe and North America, and that are conducted at multiple sites around the world, including many emerging economies. Novo Nordisk has implemented numerous procedures to protect its various stakeholders, yet will this satisfy journalists and non-governmental organizations, and how should the company communicate with these stakeholders?

Case Authors : Klaus Meyer

Topic : Organizational Development

Related Areas : Ethics, Operations management, Research & development

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Ethics of Offshoring: Novo Nordisk and Clinical Trials in Emerging Economies Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002771)	-10002771	-	-
Year 1	3459390	-6543381	3459390	0.9434	3263575
Year 2	3978886	-2564495	7438276	0.89	3541194
Year 3	3974952	1410457	11413228	0.8396	3337446
Year 4	3245707	4656164	14658935	0.7921	2570904
TOTAL			14658935		12713120

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2710349

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Nordisk Novo shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Nordisk Novo have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Ethics of Offshoring: Novo Nordisk and Clinical Trials in Emerging Economies

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Organizational Development Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Nordisk Novo often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Nordisk Novo needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002771)	-10002771	-	-
Year 1	3459390	-6543381	3459390	0.8696	3008165
Year 2	3978886	-2564495	7438276	0.7561	3008609
Year 3	3974952	1410457	11413228	0.6575	2613595
Year 4	3245707	4656164	14658935	0.5718	1855744
TOTAL					10486114

The Net NPV after 4 years is 483343

(10486114 - 10002771 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002771)	-10002771	-	-
Year 1	3459390	-6543381	3459390	0.8333	2882825
Year 2	3978886	-2564495	7438276	0.6944	2763115
Year 3	3974952	1410457	11413228	0.5787	2300319
Year 4	3245707	4656164	14658935	0.4823	1565252
TOTAL					9511512

The Net NPV after 4 years is -491259

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9511512 - 10002771 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Nordisk Novo to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Nordisk Novo has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Nordisk Novo can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Nordisk Novo, then the stock price of the Nordisk Novo should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Nordisk Novo should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Ethics of Offshoring: Novo Nordisk and Clinical Trials in Emerging Economies

References & Further Readings

Klaus Meyer (2018), "Ethics of Offshoring: Novo Nordisk and Clinical Trials in Emerging Economies Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.