Wells Fargo and Norwest: "Merger of Equals" (B) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Wells Fargo and Norwest: "Merger of Equals" (B) case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Wells Fargo and Norwest: "Merger of Equals" (B) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Jeffrey Pfeffer, Victoria Chang, Charles A. O'Reilly. The Wells Fargo and Norwest: "Merger of Equals" (B) (referred as “Norwest Fargo” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Organizational Development. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Mergers & acquisitions, Organizational culture.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Wells Fargo and Norwest: "Merger of Equals" (B) Case Study

On June 8, 1998, California-based Wells Fargo and Minneapolis banking company Norwest announced a "merger of equals" in a stock deal valued at $34 billion and one that created the Western Hemisphere's most extensive and diversified financial services network. The Wells-Norwest combined company would have $191 billion in assets, more than 90,000 employees, approximately 20 million customers, and 5,777 financial services "stores" (mortgage, consumer finance, or banking stores) in 50 states, Canada, the Caribbean, Latin America, and internationally. The new combined company, Wells Fargo & Co., would be the sixth largest bank in the United States and have the largest supermarket branch network and the largest Internet bank of any U.S. bank. With the merger, Paul Hazen, chairman and CEO of Wells Fargo at the time, became chairman of the new organization. Richard Kovacevich, chairman and CEO of Norwest, became president and CEO of the new organization. Despite Kovacevich and Hazen's enthusiasm for the merger, they had a series of potential barriers to overcome: First, Wells Fargo and Norwest had contrasting cultures--Norwest was known for customer service and a superior sales culture whereas Wells Fargo was a leader in online banking and technology, with a focus on efficiency. Second, in 1998, Wells Fargo was still in the process of overcoming a merger with First Interstate that was widely considered a failure. Finally, many industry analysts viewed the Wells-Norwest merger with much caution. Given such barriers, Kovacevich and his team wondered how they could overcome such issues through an optimal integration strategy and effective execution toward that plan.

Case Authors : Jeffrey Pfeffer, Victoria Chang, Charles A. O'Reilly

Topic : Organizational Development

Related Areas : Mergers & acquisitions, Organizational culture

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Wells Fargo and Norwest: "Merger of Equals" (B) Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10023129)	-10023129	-	-
Year 1	3447911	-6575218	3447911	0.9434	3252746
Year 2	3976852	-2598366	7424763	0.89	3539384
Year 3	3971899	1373533	11396662	0.8396	3334883
Year 4	3239561	4613094	14636223	0.7921	2566036
TOTAL			14636223		12693049

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2669920

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Norwest Fargo shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Norwest Fargo have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Wells Fargo and Norwest: "Merger of Equals" (B)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Organizational Development Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Norwest Fargo often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Norwest Fargo needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10023129)	-10023129	-	-
Year 1	3447911	-6575218	3447911	0.8696	2998183
Year 2	3976852	-2598366	7424763	0.7561	3007071
Year 3	3971899	1373533	11396662	0.6575	2611588
Year 4	3239561	4613094	14636223	0.5718	1852230
TOTAL					10469073

The Net NPV after 4 years is 445944

(10469073 - 10023129 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10023129)	-10023129	-	-
Year 1	3447911	-6575218	3447911	0.8333	2873259
Year 2	3976852	-2598366	7424763	0.6944	2761703
Year 3	3971899	1373533	11396662	0.5787	2298553
Year 4	3239561	4613094	14636223	0.4823	1562288
TOTAL					9495803

The Net NPV after 4 years is -527326

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9495803 - 10023129 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Norwest Fargo to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Norwest Fargo has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Norwest Fargo can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Norwest Fargo, then the stock price of the Norwest Fargo should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Norwest Fargo should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Wells Fargo and Norwest: "Merger of Equals" (B)

References & Further Readings

Jeffrey Pfeffer, Victoria Chang, Charles A. O'Reilly (2018), "Wells Fargo and Norwest: "Merger of Equals" (B) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.