Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Winn-Dixie Stores in 2005 (B): Cleanup on Aisle 11 case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by James Shein, Evan Meagher. The Winn-Dixie Stores in 2005 (B): Cleanup on Aisle 11 (referred as “Dixie Winn” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Organizational Development. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Costs, Crisis management, Entrepreneurial management, Financial analysis, Financial markets, Reorganization.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

Grocery store chain Winn-Dixie had rapidly expanded in an effort to become a national retailer, and by 1999 it had more than 1,000 stores. The company began manufacturing its own products, reasoning that by owning more of the supply chain, it could offer the customer less expensive options. With its new geographic focus and manufacturing facilities, Winn-Dixie attempted to secure a position as a low-cost provider with a national presence. Instead of improving the company's position in the market, however, this strategy crippled both the short- and long-term prospects for Winn-Dixie. The company paid a high premium to expand and increased its leverage without ever realizing the purposed synergies. In fact, there were dis-economies of scale because the distribution, marketing, and administrative costs had risen along with the increased revenue. The expansion and inefficient manufacturing added complexity to its distribution network, and with a greater debt load and less cash, the company was unable to reposition itself in the market when its low-cost provider strategy failed. Not only was the company unable to pursue other opportunities but it also did not have the cash to properly maintain many of its existing stores, which quickly became run down. Winn-Dixie was stuck as a general grocer with few options at a time when the industry was rapidly evolving. Following faulty strategies of expansion, supply chain changes, and increased debt, Winn-Dixie declared bankruptcy. Students will take the view that Paul "Flip" Huffard, lead consultant from Blackstone LP, had in determining the valuation and new capital structure of the company. These decisions would be critical, as they affected what each creditor class would receive and whether Winn-Dixie could emerge from bankruptcy.

Years | Cash Flow | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative Cash Flow |
Discount Rate @ 6 % |
Discounted Cash Flows |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Year 0 | (10009518) | -10009518 | - | - | |

Year 1 | 3451027 | -6558491 | 3451027 | 0.9434 | 3255686 |

Year 2 | 3979809 | -2578682 | 7430836 | 0.89 | 3542016 |

Year 3 | 3940342 | 1361660 | 11371178 | 0.8396 | 3308387 |

Year 4 | 3234090 | 4595750 | 14605268 | 0.7921 | 2561702 |

TOTAL | 14605268 | 12667791 |

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,

How it is calculated,

How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and

Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

Capital Budgeting Approaches

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return

2. Net Present Value

3. Payback Period

4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on
**Discounted Cash Flow **
technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Dixie Winn shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Dixie Winn have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn

**Less** Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.

r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate.
Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.

Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.

Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.

Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.

Step 4 – Selection of the project

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Dixie Winn often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Dixie Winn needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years | Cash Flow | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative Cash Flow |
Discount Rate @ 15 % |
Discounted Cash Flows |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Year 0 | (10009518) | -10009518 | - | - | |

Year 1 | 3451027 | -6558491 | 3451027 | 0.8696 | 3000893 |

Year 2 | 3979809 | -2578682 | 7430836 | 0.7561 | 3009307 |

Year 3 | 3940342 | 1361660 | 11371178 | 0.6575 | 2590839 |

Year 4 | 3234090 | 4595750 | 14605268 | 0.5718 | 1849101 |

TOTAL | 10450141 |

(10450141 - 10009518 )

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years | Cash Flow | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative Cash Flow |
Discount Rate @ 20 % |
Discounted Cash Flows |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Year 0 | (10009518) | -10009518 | - | - | |

Year 1 | 3451027 | -6558491 | 3451027 | 0.8333 | 2875856 |

Year 2 | 3979809 | -2578682 | 7430836 | 0.6944 | 2763756 |

Year 3 | 3940342 | 1361660 | 11371178 | 0.5787 | 2280291 |

Year 4 | 3234090 | 4595750 | 14605268 | 0.4823 | 1559650 |

TOTAL | 9479552 |

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9479552 - 10009518 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Dixie Winn to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Dixie Winn has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Dixie Winn can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Dixie Winn, then the stock price of the Dixie Winn should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Dixie Winn should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

** James Shein, Evan Meagher (2018)**, "Winn-Dixie Stores in 2005 (B): Cleanup on Aisle 11 Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.

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