Aruna Roy and the Birth of a People's Movement in India Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Aruna Roy and the Birth of a People's Movement in India case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Aruna Roy and the Birth of a People's Movement in India case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Pratibha Krishnamurthy, Kenneth Winston, Patricia Garcia-Rios. The Aruna Roy and the Birth of a People's Movement in India (referred as “Aruna Citizens” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Organizational Development. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Government, International business, Leadership, Public relations, Risk management, Strategic planning.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Aruna Roy and the Birth of a People's Movement in India Case Study

This case is accompanied by a Video Short that can be shown in class or included in a digital coursepack. Instructors should consider the timing of making the video available to students, as it may reveal key case details.In 2005, the Parliament of India enacted the Right to Information Act, a law giving citizens of India access to central, state, and local government records. Under the law's provisions, citizens have the ability to request information regarding official acts from any public authority. Officials who refuse or delay requests are held responsible through fines or disciplinary action. Many individuals and organizations were involved in the lengthy and difficult process of getting this legislation enacted. This case focuses on one of these individuals, Aruna Roy, regarded by many observers as having played a key role in empowering citizens to exercise the democratic right to make their government transparent and accountable. It traces her background and the challenges she faced in developing her commitment to improving the lives of the poor and socially marginalized. HKS Case Number 1929.0

Case Authors : Pratibha Krishnamurthy, Kenneth Winston, Patricia Garcia-Rios

Topic : Organizational Development

Related Areas : Government, International business, Leadership, Public relations, Risk management, Strategic planning

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Aruna Roy and the Birth of a People's Movement in India Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10007939)	-10007939	-	-
Year 1	3460561	-6547378	3460561	0.9434	3264680
Year 2	3982844	-2564534	7443405	0.89	3544717
Year 3	3941637	1377103	11385042	0.8396	3309474
Year 4	3223087	4600190	14608129	0.7921	2552987
TOTAL			14608129		12671858

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2663919

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Profitability Index
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Aruna Citizens shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Aruna Citizens have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Aruna Roy and the Birth of a People's Movement in India

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Organizational Development Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Aruna Citizens often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Aruna Citizens needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10007939)	-10007939	-	-
Year 1	3460561	-6547378	3460561	0.8696	3009183
Year 2	3982844	-2564534	7443405	0.7561	3011602
Year 3	3941637	1377103	11385042	0.6575	2591690
Year 4	3223087	4600190	14608129	0.5718	1842810
TOTAL					10455287

The Net NPV after 4 years is 447348

(10455287 - 10007939 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10007939)	-10007939	-	-
Year 1	3460561	-6547378	3460561	0.8333	2883801
Year 2	3982844	-2564534	7443405	0.6944	2765864
Year 3	3941637	1377103	11385042	0.5787	2281040
Year 4	3223087	4600190	14608129	0.4823	1554344
TOTAL					9485048

The Net NPV after 4 years is -522891

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9485048 - 10007939 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Aruna Citizens to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Aruna Citizens has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Aruna Citizens can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Aruna Citizens, then the stock price of the Aruna Citizens should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Aruna Citizens should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Aruna Roy and the Birth of a People's Movement in India

References & Further Readings

Pratibha Krishnamurthy, Kenneth Winston, Patricia Garcia-Rios (2018), "Aruna Roy and the Birth of a People's Movement in India Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.