Himalaya Herbal Toothpaste: Category and Brand Involvement in an Emerging Market Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Himalaya Herbal Toothpaste: Category and Brand Involvement in an Emerging Market case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Himalaya Herbal Toothpaste: Category and Brand Involvement in an Emerging Market case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by S. Ramesh Kumar, Nitya Guruvayurappan. The Himalaya Herbal Toothpaste: Category and Brand Involvement in an Emerging Market (referred as “Toothpaste Involvement” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Emerging markets.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Himalaya Herbal Toothpaste: Category and Brand Involvement in an Emerging Market Case Study

Kumar was curious to find out whether consumers were really loyal to the brands in the toothpaste category. He was interested in the toothpaste category, and Himalaya had herbal offerings in the retail and prescriptive segments. Were consumers loyal to a particular brand of toothpaste? Did they remember the functional brand benefits? Were consumers buying brands due to the social benefits reflected in the ads? Did consumers continue to buy particular brands without switching, due to inertia? Were consumers interested in herbal offerings? How should Himalaya be perceived by consumers? This medley of issues presented yet another opportunity to an academic to conceptualize consumer behaviour, one that was perhaps unique to the Indian context.The concept of product involvement differentiated consumer segments based on the degrees of personal interest expressed by consumers with regard to specific products and services. High-involvement categories required consumers to be involved in extensive buying behavior that led to one or more of the following aspects: risk reduction, enhancement of self-image, and a greater degree of gratification in having achieved an optimal choice after examining the various alternatives in the category. Low-involvement categories were those that were bought in a routine manner by the consumer, with a degree of personal interest that was lower than that associated with the high-involvement categories. Marketers always had to face competitive challenges in enhancing the degree of involvement even in low-involvement categories through appropriate branding initiatives. The toothpaste category was one such category in the Indian context.

Case Authors : S. Ramesh Kumar, Nitya Guruvayurappan

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas : Emerging markets

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Himalaya Herbal Toothpaste: Category and Brand Involvement in an Emerging Market Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002339)	-10002339	-	-
Year 1	3458465	-6543874	3458465	0.9434	3262703
Year 2	3965821	-2578053	7424286	0.89	3529567
Year 3	3952353	1374300	11376639	0.8396	3318472
Year 4	3227029	4601329	14603668	0.7921	2556109
TOTAL			14603668		12666850

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2664511

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Toothpaste Involvement shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Toothpaste Involvement have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Himalaya Herbal Toothpaste: Category and Brand Involvement in an Emerging Market

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Toothpaste Involvement often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Toothpaste Involvement needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002339)	-10002339	-	-
Year 1	3458465	-6543874	3458465	0.8696	3007361
Year 2	3965821	-2578053	7424286	0.7561	2998730
Year 3	3952353	1374300	11376639	0.6575	2598736
Year 4	3227029	4601329	14603668	0.5718	1845064
TOTAL					10449892

The Net NPV after 4 years is 447553

(10449892 - 10002339 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002339)	-10002339	-	-
Year 1	3458465	-6543874	3458465	0.8333	2882054
Year 2	3965821	-2578053	7424286	0.6944	2754042
Year 3	3952353	1374300	11376639	0.5787	2287241
Year 4	3227029	4601329	14603668	0.4823	1556245
TOTAL					9479583

The Net NPV after 4 years is -522756

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9479583 - 10002339 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Toothpaste Involvement to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Toothpaste Involvement has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Toothpaste Involvement can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Toothpaste Involvement, then the stock price of the Toothpaste Involvement should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Toothpaste Involvement should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Himalaya Herbal Toothpaste: Category and Brand Involvement in an Emerging Market

References & Further Readings

S. Ramesh Kumar, Nitya Guruvayurappan (2018), "Himalaya Herbal Toothpaste: Category and Brand Involvement in an Emerging Market Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.