Zero-Fee Tours: An Irresistible Bargain or a Sinkhole? Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Zero-Fee Tours: An Irresistible Bargain or a Sinkhole? case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Zero-Fee Tours: An Irresistible Bargain or a Sinkhole? case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Wen Zhou, Penelope Chan. The Zero-Fee Tours: An Irresistible Bargain or a Sinkhole? (referred as “Tours Inbound” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Competitive strategy, Marketing, Product development, Regulation.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Zero-Fee Tours: An Irresistible Bargain or a Sinkhole? Case Study

In early 2003, an outbreak of SARS in Hong Kong led to a plunge in inbound travel to the city. Many local travel agencies started hosting below-cost inbound tours, dubbed "zero-fee tours", for mainland Chinese tourists. They make a profit by bringing these tourists to shop in designated retail outlets that charge them inflated prices but offer lucrative commissions to tour operators. Zero-fee tours first caught the public's attention in October 2006 when a group of tourists were abandoned at a pier because they spent too little while shopping. Then in June 2010, a tourist died of a heart attack after a heated argument with a tour guide over a shopping arrangement. Despite preventive measures implemented by the industry association, tourist complaints keep increasing and high-profile cases in which tour guides insult or even fight with tourists continue to happen. Trendy Travel Limited is a local travel agency that hosts regularly priced inbound tours. Facing strong market demand for zero-fee tours, it would like to understand the business model of zero-fee tours: what is the driving force, is it sustainable, and what are the impacts to the company and the entire industry? It also wants to determine how to position its inbound tour business in the short and long term.

Case Authors : Wen Zhou, Penelope Chan

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas : Competitive strategy, Marketing, Product development, Regulation

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Zero-Fee Tours: An Irresistible Bargain or a Sinkhole? Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10001746)	-10001746	-	-
Year 1	3464463	-6537283	3464463	0.9434	3268361
Year 2	3955467	-2581816	7419930	0.89	3520352
Year 3	3975177	1393361	11395107	0.8396	3337635
Year 4	3233332	4626693	14628439	0.7921	2561102
TOTAL			14628439		12687450

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2685704

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Net Present Value
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Tours Inbound shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Tours Inbound have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Zero-Fee Tours: An Irresistible Bargain or a Sinkhole?

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Tours Inbound often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Tours Inbound needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10001746)	-10001746	-	-
Year 1	3464463	-6537283	3464463	0.8696	3012577
Year 2	3955467	-2581816	7419930	0.7561	2990901
Year 3	3975177	1393361	11395107	0.6575	2613743
Year 4	3233332	4626693	14628439	0.5718	1848668
TOTAL					10465889

The Net NPV after 4 years is 464143

(10465889 - 10001746 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10001746)	-10001746	-	-
Year 1	3464463	-6537283	3464463	0.8333	2887053
Year 2	3955467	-2581816	7419930	0.6944	2746852
Year 3	3975177	1393361	11395107	0.5787	2300450
Year 4	3233332	4626693	14628439	0.4823	1559284
TOTAL					9493639

The Net NPV after 4 years is -508107

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9493639 - 10001746 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Tours Inbound to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Tours Inbound has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Tours Inbound can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Tours Inbound, then the stock price of the Tours Inbound should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Tours Inbound should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Zero-Fee Tours: An Irresistible Bargain or a Sinkhole?

References & Further Readings

Wen Zhou, Penelope Chan (2018), "Zero-Fee Tours: An Irresistible Bargain or a Sinkhole? Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.