The Fashion Channel Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for The Fashion Channel case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. The Fashion Channel case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Wendy Stahl. The The Fashion Channel (referred as “Tfc Fashion” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Change management, Market research.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of The Fashion Channel Case Study

When students have the English-language PDF of this Brief Case in a coursepack, they will also have the option to purchase an audio version.The new Senior Vice President of Marketing for The Fashion Channel (TFC), a cable television network dedicated to round-the-clock, fashion-oriented programming, is preparing to recommend a change in the company's traditional marketing approach by introducing a market segmentation program. This program is, in part, a response to the intensifying competitive environment for TFC, and it needs to strengthen the company's brand and positioning with viewers and advertisers. At the same time, the program must maintain consumer and distributor satisfaction with the network. Several segmentation options are being considered, each with pros and cons. Consumer research provides insights but does not give a simple answer regarding the best path to take. The reader must evaluate the research results, calculate financial scenarios, and make a recommendation. Also looks at change management issues. TFC has never done a program like this before, and the Senior Vice President of Marketing is new to the job. In addition to making a recommendation, she must manage the change process to insure that the organization and her leadership team peers are fully aligned.

Case Authors : Wendy Stahl

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas : Change management, Market research

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for The Fashion Channel Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10023711)	-10023711	-	-
Year 1	3445742	-6577969	3445742	0.9434	3250700
Year 2	3979179	-2598790	7424921	0.89	3541455
Year 3	3955377	1356587	11380298	0.8396	3321011
Year 4	3224364	4580951	14604662	0.7921	2553998
TOTAL			14604662		12667164

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2643453

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Profitability Index
3. Net Present Value
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Tfc Fashion have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Tfc Fashion shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of The Fashion Channel

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Tfc Fashion often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Tfc Fashion needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10023711)	-10023711	-	-
Year 1	3445742	-6577969	3445742	0.8696	2996297
Year 2	3979179	-2598790	7424921	0.7561	3008831
Year 3	3955377	1356587	11380298	0.6575	2600725
Year 4	3224364	4580951	14604662	0.5718	1843541
TOTAL					10449394

The Net NPV after 4 years is 425683

(10449394 - 10023711 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10023711)	-10023711	-	-
Year 1	3445742	-6577969	3445742	0.8333	2871452
Year 2	3979179	-2598790	7424921	0.6944	2763319
Year 3	3955377	1356587	11380298	0.5787	2288991
Year 4	3224364	4580951	14604662	0.4823	1554959
TOTAL					9478721

The Net NPV after 4 years is -544990

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9478721 - 10023711 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Tfc Fashion to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Tfc Fashion has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Tfc Fashion can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Tfc Fashion, then the stock price of the Tfc Fashion should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Tfc Fashion should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of The Fashion Channel

References & Further Readings

Wendy Stahl (2018), "The Fashion Channel Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.