Medicines Co. Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Medicines Co. case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Medicines Co. case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by John T. Gourville. The Medicines Co. (referred as “Angiomax Heparin” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Change management, Marketing, Pricing, Product development, Risk management, Technology.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Medicines Co. Case Study

It is early 2001 and the Medicines Co. just received FDA approval to market Angiomax, a blood thinner to be used during angioplasties and heart procedures. It is intended to be a better alternative to Heparin, an 80-year-old drug that costs less then $10 per dose. The company believes it can sell Angiomax for a much higher price than Heparin--but how much more? Angiomax also represents the first of several drugs being developed under a rather unique business model. The company is in the business of "rescuing" drugs that other companies have given up on--i.e., they purchase or license the rights to drugs that other companies have halted development on, with the intent of completing the development process and bringing the drug to market. With the success of Angiomax, the company feels that this business model has been validated.

Case Authors : John T. Gourville

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas : Change management, Marketing, Pricing, Product development, Risk management, Technology

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Medicines Co. Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10022502)	-10022502	-	-
Year 1	3450166	-6572336	3450166	0.9434	3254874
Year 2	3978151	-2594185	7428317	0.89	3540540
Year 3	3955066	1360881	11383383	0.8396	3320750
Year 4	3229276	4590157	14612659	0.7921	2557889
TOTAL			14612659		12674053

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2651551

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Net Present Value
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Angiomax Heparin shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Angiomax Heparin have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Medicines Co.

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Angiomax Heparin often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Angiomax Heparin needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10022502)	-10022502	-	-
Year 1	3450166	-6572336	3450166	0.8696	3000144
Year 2	3978151	-2594185	7428317	0.7561	3008054
Year 3	3955066	1360881	11383383	0.6575	2600520
Year 4	3229276	4590157	14612659	0.5718	1846349
TOTAL					10455067

The Net NPV after 4 years is 432565

(10455067 - 10022502 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10022502)	-10022502	-	-
Year 1	3450166	-6572336	3450166	0.8333	2875138
Year 2	3978151	-2594185	7428317	0.6944	2762605
Year 3	3955066	1360881	11383383	0.5787	2288811
Year 4	3229276	4590157	14612659	0.4823	1557328
TOTAL					9483883

The Net NPV after 4 years is -538619

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9483883 - 10022502 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Angiomax Heparin to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Angiomax Heparin has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Angiomax Heparin can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Angiomax Heparin, then the stock price of the Angiomax Heparin should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Angiomax Heparin should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Medicines Co.

References & Further Readings

John T. Gourville (2018), "Medicines Co. Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.