Moshi Looks to Popularize Fusion Fare in Dubai Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Moshi Looks to Popularize Fusion Fare in Dubai case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Moshi Looks to Popularize Fusion Fare in Dubai case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Sandeep Puri, Kirti Khanzode, Rahul Jain. The Moshi Looks to Popularize Fusion Fare in Dubai (referred as “Moshi Fusion” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Moshi Looks to Popularize Fusion Fare in Dubai Case Study

Moshi, a fusion restaurant in an upmarket area of Dubai, had carved out a niche for itself with its unique menu, high-quality food, and excellent service-all offered at a reasonable price. As the young owner planned to launch another outlet, he pondered his options for growth. Was it time to create a chain, or should he give the new outlet a completely different feel and target a specific customer segment? Should he increase his product range or stick with his unique offerings? Because of its fusion theme (Nepalese cuisine and Japanese sushi), Moshi did not have a clear positioning in terms of its menu. Would Moshi's unique offerings be enough to sustain its continued existence in Dubai's competitive restaurant industry? Would this business be scalable? The owner had relied on word-of-mouth publicity thus far; however, was this method adequate? What sort of marketing strategy should he adopt? Sandeep Puri is affiliated with Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad. Kirti Khanzode is affiliated with Institute of Management Technology, Dubai. Rahul Jain is affiliated with Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad.

Case Authors : Sandeep Puri, Kirti Khanzode, Rahul Jain

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Moshi Looks to Popularize Fusion Fare in Dubai Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10011018)	-10011018	-	-
Year 1	3464875	-6546143	3464875	0.9434	3268750
Year 2	3971236	-2574907	7436111	0.89	3534386
Year 3	3969873	1394966	11405984	0.8396	3333182
Year 4	3231474	4626440	14637458	0.7921	2559630
TOTAL			14637458		12695948

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2684930

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Profitability Index
3. Net Present Value
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Moshi Fusion have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Moshi Fusion shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Moshi Looks to Popularize Fusion Fare in Dubai

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Moshi Fusion often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Moshi Fusion needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10011018)	-10011018	-	-
Year 1	3464875	-6546143	3464875	0.8696	3012935
Year 2	3971236	-2574907	7436111	0.7561	3002825
Year 3	3969873	1394966	11405984	0.6575	2610256
Year 4	3231474	4626440	14637458	0.5718	1847606
TOTAL					10473621

The Net NPV after 4 years is 462603

(10473621 - 10011018 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10011018)	-10011018	-	-
Year 1	3464875	-6546143	3464875	0.8333	2887396
Year 2	3971236	-2574907	7436111	0.6944	2757803
Year 3	3969873	1394966	11405984	0.5787	2297380
Year 4	3231474	4626440	14637458	0.4823	1558388
TOTAL					9500967

The Net NPV after 4 years is -510051

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9500967 - 10011018 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Moshi Fusion to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Moshi Fusion has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Moshi Fusion can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Moshi Fusion, then the stock price of the Moshi Fusion should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Moshi Fusion should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Moshi Looks to Popularize Fusion Fare in Dubai

References & Further Readings

Sandeep Puri, Kirti Khanzode, Rahul Jain (2018), "Moshi Looks to Popularize Fusion Fare in Dubai Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.