vineyard vines and The Brotherhood of the Traveling Pants Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for vineyard vines and The Brotherhood of the Traveling Pants case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. vineyard vines and The Brotherhood of the Traveling Pants case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Meghan Murray, Matthew Loftus, I.S. Dunklin. The vineyard vines and The Brotherhood of the Traveling Pants (referred as “Vines Vineyard” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Social platforms.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of vineyard vines and The Brotherhood of the Traveling Pants Case Study

This case, "vineyard vines and The Brotherhood of the Traveling Pants," introduces students to a unique partnership in the social media advertising world. Preppy clothing powerhouse vineyard vines had a history of interacting with its customers by featuring user-generated content in its catalogs and on its website and decided to continue this tradition on social media by partnering with a group of fans called The Brotherhood of the Traveling Pants. This successful and authentic social media marketing campaign resulted in increased sales for vineyard vines and influencer status for the members of The Brotherhood. At the end of the campaign, the vineyard vines marketing team is left debating how to grow its social media presence through partnerships. The case has been used as part of a social media marketing course and would be effective in any undergraduate- or graduate-level marketing course.

Case Authors : Meghan Murray, Matthew Loftus, I.S. Dunklin

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas : Social platforms

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for vineyard vines and The Brotherhood of the Traveling Pants Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002560)	-10002560	-	-
Year 1	3448207	-6554353	3448207	0.9434	3253025
Year 2	3977749	-2576604	7425956	0.89	3540182
Year 3	3937079	1360475	11363035	0.8396	3305647
Year 4	3234825	4595300	14597860	0.7921	2562284
TOTAL			14597860		12661140

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2658580

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Profitability Index
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Vines Vineyard have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Vines Vineyard shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of vineyard vines and The Brotherhood of the Traveling Pants

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Vines Vineyard often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Vines Vineyard needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002560)	-10002560	-	-
Year 1	3448207	-6554353	3448207	0.8696	2998441
Year 2	3977749	-2576604	7425956	0.7561	3007750
Year 3	3937079	1360475	11363035	0.6575	2588693
Year 4	3234825	4595300	14597860	0.5718	1849522
TOTAL					10444406

The Net NPV after 4 years is 441846

(10444406 - 10002560 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002560)	-10002560	-	-
Year 1	3448207	-6554353	3448207	0.8333	2873506
Year 2	3977749	-2576604	7425956	0.6944	2762326
Year 3	3937079	1360475	11363035	0.5787	2278402
Year 4	3234825	4595300	14597860	0.4823	1560004
TOTAL					9474238

The Net NPV after 4 years is -528322

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9474238 - 10002560 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Vines Vineyard to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Vines Vineyard has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Vines Vineyard can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Vines Vineyard, then the stock price of the Vines Vineyard should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Vines Vineyard should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of vineyard vines and The Brotherhood of the Traveling Pants

References & Further Readings

Meghan Murray, Matthew Loftus, I.S. Dunklin (2018), "vineyard vines and The Brotherhood of the Traveling Pants Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.