Syntonix Pharmaceuticals Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Syntonix Pharmaceuticals case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Syntonix Pharmaceuticals case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Raymond M. Kinnunen, Susan F. Sieloff, Robert Young. The Syntonix Pharmaceuticals (referred as “Syntonix Syndicate” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, IT, Venture capital.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Syntonix Pharmaceuticals Case Study

Syntonix Pharmaceuticals, a Boston biopharmaceutical startup company, was seeking additional financing for growth. The company had developed and patented an improved delivery platform for long-acting biopharmaceuticals and then utilized that technology to develop new therapies to treat chronic diseases. The TransceptorA® technology utilized a unique biological pathway to allow efficient delivery of SynFusiona„¢ drug therapies. Several companies licensed the technologies in joint development deals to address several different conditions: Hemophilia B, autoimmune disorders, and infertility, as well as for use in enhanced peptide inhalation. The company had used up Angel money and Rounds A and B of venture capital financing and was looking for an additional $80 - $100 million for growth. In September 2006, Syntonix was in negotiations with a VC syndicate to gain a 'C' Round of funding. One member of the proposed syndicate, Biogen Idec, indicated interest in buying Syntonix outright. The founders needed to make a decision about the offer.

Case Authors : Raymond M. Kinnunen, Susan F. Sieloff, Robert Young

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : IT, Venture capital

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Syntonix Pharmaceuticals Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10017284)	-10017284	-	-
Year 1	3467840	-6549444	3467840	0.9434	3271547
Year 2	3980931	-2568513	7448771	0.89	3543014
Year 3	3974107	1405594	11422878	0.8396	3336737
Year 4	3248185	4653779	14671063	0.7921	2572867
TOTAL			14671063		12724165

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2706881

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Syntonix Syndicate have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Syntonix Syndicate shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Syntonix Pharmaceuticals

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Syntonix Syndicate often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Syntonix Syndicate needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10017284)	-10017284	-	-
Year 1	3467840	-6549444	3467840	0.8696	3015513
Year 2	3980931	-2568513	7448771	0.7561	3010156
Year 3	3974107	1405594	11422878	0.6575	2613040
Year 4	3248185	4653779	14671063	0.5718	1857160
TOTAL					10495869

The Net NPV after 4 years is 478585

(10495869 - 10017284 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10017284)	-10017284	-	-
Year 1	3467840	-6549444	3467840	0.8333	2889867
Year 2	3980931	-2568513	7448771	0.6944	2764535
Year 3	3974107	1405594	11422878	0.5787	2299830
Year 4	3248185	4653779	14671063	0.4823	1566447
TOTAL					9520680

The Net NPV after 4 years is -496604

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9520680 - 10017284 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Syntonix Syndicate to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Syntonix Syndicate has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Syntonix Syndicate can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Syntonix Syndicate, then the stock price of the Syntonix Syndicate should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Syntonix Syndicate should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Syntonix Pharmaceuticals

References & Further Readings

Raymond M. Kinnunen, Susan F. Sieloff, Robert Young (2018), "Syntonix Pharmaceuticals Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.