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Utilizing the Access Value of Customers Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Utilizing the Access Value of Customers case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Utilizing the Access Value of Customers case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Puqing Lai. The Utilizing the Access Value of Customers (referred as “Access Customer” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Customer service, Marketing, Sales, Technology.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Utilizing the Access Value of Customers Case Study


Customers are critical resources for the success of any business, not only because they bring in sales and profits directly, but also because of their access value in a world that is becoming increasingly interconnected. However, the mechanisms by which the customer access value may be exploited and the implication for management has not been well understood. Access value can be defined as the worth of utilizing patrons for further marketing and sales of value-added or third party products. The access value, which mainly results from the aggregation of the customer base and customer data, is essentially a corporation's internalized asset. This article shows that the size of the customer base and the extent of engagement have a significant impact on the customer access value. To develop and gain the benefits of customer access value, traditional business models often need to be transformed: firms and platforms should provide free or subsidized products to attract people and then embed value-added products to make money. The success of the new business model depends on not only the right pricing and product strategies, but also an embedding strategy.


Case Authors : Puqing Lai

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas : Customer service, Marketing, Sales, Technology




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Utilizing the Access Value of Customers Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10019695) -10019695 - -
Year 1 3446125 -6573570 3446125 0.9434 3251061
Year 2 3953923 -2619647 7400048 0.89 3518977
Year 3 3967159 1347512 11367207 0.8396 3330903
Year 4 3245725 4593237 14612932 0.7921 2570918
TOTAL 14612932 12671860




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2652165

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Net Present Value
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Access Customer have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Access Customer shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Utilizing the Access Value of Customers

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Access Customer often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Access Customer needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10019695) -10019695 - -
Year 1 3446125 -6573570 3446125 0.8696 2996630
Year 2 3953923 -2619647 7400048 0.7561 2989734
Year 3 3967159 1347512 11367207 0.6575 2608471
Year 4 3245725 4593237 14612932 0.5718 1855754
TOTAL 10450590


The Net NPV after 4 years is 430895

(10450590 - 10019695 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10019695) -10019695 - -
Year 1 3446125 -6573570 3446125 0.8333 2871771
Year 2 3953923 -2619647 7400048 0.6944 2745780
Year 3 3967159 1347512 11367207 0.5787 2295810
Year 4 3245725 4593237 14612932 0.4823 1565261
TOTAL 9478621


The Net NPV after 4 years is -541074

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9478621 - 10019695 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Access Customer to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Access Customer has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Access Customer can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Access Customer, then the stock price of the Access Customer should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Access Customer should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Utilizing the Access Value of Customers

References & Further Readings

Puqing Lai (2018), "Utilizing the Access Value of Customers Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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