Stealth Marketing: How to Reach Consumers Surreptitiously Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Stealth Marketing: How to Reach Consumers Surreptitiously case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Stealth Marketing: How to Reach Consumers Surreptitiously case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Jack G. Kaikati, Andrew M. Kaikati. The Stealth Marketing: How to Reach Consumers Surreptitiously (referred as “Stealth Surreptitiously” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Marketing.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

---

Case Description of Stealth Marketing: How to Reach Consumers Surreptitiously Case Study

As traditional television advertisements continue to lose their effectiveness, brand managers are being more pressured to think creatively by going undercover to reach consumers surreptitiously. To capture the attention of jaded, fickle consumers, they are urged to devise below-the-radar approaches that are harder to detect. Examines six stealth marketing techniques and shows how stealth marketing is a viable alternative to obtrusive conventional advertising. Some stealth efforts are so subtle that consumers do not know they are being pitched to. There are emerging ethical and legal issues raised by critics of these techniques. Although some stealth marketing campaigns are setting off alarms with consumer watchdog groups, these techniques will inevitably grow more common. They have a powerful role to play when they are tastefully implemented and respect consumers' intelligence. Brand managers are gambling that the benefits of stealth marketing will outweigh the complaints of its critics.

Case Authors : Jack G. Kaikati, Andrew M. Kaikati

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas : Marketing

---

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Stealth Marketing: How to Reach Consumers Surreptitiously Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028407)	-10028407	-	-
Year 1	3462034	-6566373	3462034	0.9434	3266070
Year 2	3957072	-2609301	7419106	0.89	3521780
Year 3	3952547	1343246	11371653	0.8396	3318635
Year 4	3241111	4584357	14612764	0.7921	2567263
TOTAL			14612764		12673748

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2645341

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

---

Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Stealth Surreptitiously have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Stealth Surreptitiously shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

---

Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Stealth Marketing: How to Reach Consumers Surreptitiously

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Stealth Surreptitiously often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Stealth Surreptitiously needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028407)	-10028407	-	-
Year 1	3462034	-6566373	3462034	0.8696	3010464
Year 2	3957072	-2609301	7419106	0.7561	2992115
Year 3	3952547	1343246	11371653	0.6575	2598864
Year 4	3241111	4584357	14612764	0.5718	1853116
TOTAL					10454559

The Net NPV after 4 years is 426152

(10454559 - 10028407 )

---

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028407)	-10028407	-	-
Year 1	3462034	-6566373	3462034	0.8333	2885028
Year 2	3957072	-2609301	7419106	0.6944	2747967
Year 3	3952547	1343246	11371653	0.5787	2287354
Year 4	3241111	4584357	14612764	0.4823	1563036
TOTAL					9483384

The Net NPV after 4 years is -545023

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9483384 - 10028407 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Stealth Surreptitiously to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Stealth Surreptitiously has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Stealth Surreptitiously can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Stealth Surreptitiously, then the stock price of the Stealth Surreptitiously should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Stealth Surreptitiously should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

---

Negotiation Strategy of Stealth Marketing: How to Reach Consumers Surreptitiously

References & Further Readings

Jack G. Kaikati, Andrew M. Kaikati (2018), "Stealth Marketing: How to Reach Consumers Surreptitiously Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.