Volkswagen in India Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Volkswagen in India case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Volkswagen in India case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Seema Gupta. The Volkswagen in India (referred as “Vw Vw's” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Volkswagen in India Case Study

The case traces the entry of Volkswagen (VW) in India at a time when India will play a key role in fulfilling VW's global ambitions. The case describes the consumer research conducted by VW to identify consumer insights which pave the way for designing products to meet local needs and aspirations. The case describes VW's segmentation, targeting and positioning strategy for India against the background of its global brand values. The case traces the launch strategy of each of the models - Passat, Jetta, Touareg, Phaeton, Beetle, Polo and Vento. The case invites students to review the marketing and communication strategy of VW to enable it to fulfill its vision of being among the top three brands in India by 2018. The vision is challenging, particularly because VW is a very late entrant in the Indian market. The rich data in the case enables full-blown discussion on whether VW is differentiating itself enough in the competitive market place; or is it giving a compelling reason to the consumer to buy its brands.

Case Authors : Seema Gupta

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Volkswagen in India Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10017636)	-10017636	-	-
Year 1	3460530	-6557106	3460530	0.9434	3264651
Year 2	3979786	-2577320	7440316	0.89	3541995
Year 3	3936294	1358974	11376610	0.8396	3304988
Year 4	3245962	4604936	14622572	0.7921	2571106
TOTAL			14622572		12682741

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2665105

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Profitability Index
3. Net Present Value
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Vw Vw's shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Vw Vw's have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Volkswagen in India

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Vw Vw's often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Vw Vw's needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10017636)	-10017636	-	-
Year 1	3460530	-6557106	3460530	0.8696	3009157
Year 2	3979786	-2577320	7440316	0.7561	3009290
Year 3	3936294	1358974	11376610	0.6575	2588177
Year 4	3245962	4604936	14622572	0.5718	1855889
TOTAL					10462513

The Net NPV after 4 years is 444877

(10462513 - 10017636 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10017636)	-10017636	-	-
Year 1	3460530	-6557106	3460530	0.8333	2883775
Year 2	3979786	-2577320	7440316	0.6944	2763740
Year 3	3936294	1358974	11376610	0.5787	2277948
Year 4	3245962	4604936	14622572	0.4823	1565375
TOTAL					9490838

The Net NPV after 4 years is -526798

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9490838 - 10017636 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Vw Vw's to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Vw Vw's has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Vw Vw's can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Vw Vw's, then the stock price of the Vw Vw's should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Vw Vw's should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Volkswagen in India

References & Further Readings

Seema Gupta (2018), "Volkswagen in India Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.