Ferns N Petals: Flowering Through a Unique Franchising Model Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Ferns N Petals: Flowering Through a Unique Franchising Model case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Ferns N Petals: Flowering Through a Unique Franchising Model case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by V. V. Gopal, Suresh Kerani, Balakrishnan Kondath. The Ferns N Petals: Flowering Through a Unique Franchising Model (referred as “Ferns Petals” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Ferns N Petals: Flowering Through a Unique Franchising Model Case Study

The successful rise of Ferns N Petals, a branded flower boutique, coincided with the post-liberalization retail boom in India, a period of rapid growth for organized modern retailing, including online retailing. As the economy grew, disposable incomes rose, driving demographic and lifestyle changes and fuelling aspirations. The Ferns N Petals chain tapped franchisees aggressively. In a predominantly unorganized and localized market, the company successfully convinced potential franchisees to become part of the chain of nationwide branded stores. However, Ferns N Petals' unique franchising business model faced many challenges - including creating and sustaining volume growth for franchisees while continuing to widen and deepen its retail footprint and replicating its model in the high-priced, highly skill-oriented and competitive wedding segment. V.V. Gopal is affiliated with University, Bangalor. Suresh Kerani is affiliated with Vignana Jyothi Institute of Management. Balakrishnan Kondath is affiliated with IBS Business School.

Case Authors : V. V. Gopal, Suresh Kerani, Balakrishnan Kondath

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Ferns N Petals: Flowering Through a Unique Franchising Model Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021453)	-10021453	-	-
Year 1	3469515	-6551938	3469515	0.9434	3273127
Year 2	3966111	-2585827	7435626	0.89	3529825
Year 3	3971235	1385408	11406861	0.8396	3334325
Year 4	3247066	4632474	14653927	0.7921	2571980
TOTAL			14653927		12709258

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2687805

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Ferns Petals shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Ferns Petals have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Ferns N Petals: Flowering Through a Unique Franchising Model

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Ferns Petals often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Ferns Petals needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021453)	-10021453	-	-
Year 1	3469515	-6551938	3469515	0.8696	3016970
Year 2	3966111	-2585827	7435626	0.7561	2998950
Year 3	3971235	1385408	11406861	0.6575	2611151
Year 4	3247066	4632474	14653927	0.5718	1856521
TOTAL					10483591

The Net NPV after 4 years is 462138

(10483591 - 10021453 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021453)	-10021453	-	-
Year 1	3469515	-6551938	3469515	0.8333	2891263
Year 2	3966111	-2585827	7435626	0.6944	2754244
Year 3	3971235	1385408	11406861	0.5787	2298168
Year 4	3247066	4632474	14653927	0.4823	1565908
TOTAL					9509582

The Net NPV after 4 years is -511871

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9509582 - 10021453 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Ferns Petals to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Ferns Petals has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Ferns Petals can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Ferns Petals, then the stock price of the Ferns Petals should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Ferns Petals should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Ferns N Petals: Flowering Through a Unique Franchising Model

References & Further Readings

V. V. Gopal, Suresh Kerani, Balakrishnan Kondath (2018), "Ferns N Petals: Flowering Through a Unique Franchising Model Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.