Paid Search: The Innovation that Changed the Web Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Paid Search: The Innovation that Changed the Web case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Paid Search: The Innovation that Changed the Web case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Des Laffey, Kent D. Seltman. The Paid Search: The Innovation that Changed the Web (referred as “Search Paid” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Marketing.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Paid Search: The Innovation that Changed the Web Case Study

Search engines are key to the operation of the World Wide Web. This centrality, however, presents challenges: search engine providers face the problem of revenue generation when users expect free content, whilst advertisers need to attract the interest of searchers. The innovation that effectively addresses these challenges is the use of text advertisements based upon search topic, known as paid search. The method entails advertisers competing for top listing position through bidding in ongoing auctions and then paying when users click on their advertisements, making paid search a flexible and accountable form of advertising. Since its introduction in 1998, paid search has become the dominant form of online advertising and led to Google's $140 billion market capitalization in 2006. Analyzes the emergence of paid search and the mechanics of its operation, and offers managers guidance on its effective usage.

Case Authors : Des Laffey, Kent D. Seltman

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas : Marketing

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Paid Search: The Innovation that Changed the Web Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10016543)	-10016543	-	-
Year 1	3452769	-6563774	3452769	0.9434	3257329
Year 2	3972057	-2591717	7424826	0.89	3535117
Year 3	3975677	1383960	11400503	0.8396	3338055
Year 4	3239661	4623621	14640164	0.7921	2566115
TOTAL			14640164		12696616

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2680073

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Net Present Value
3. Payback Period
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Search Paid shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Search Paid have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Paid Search: The Innovation that Changed the Web

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Search Paid often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Search Paid needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10016543)	-10016543	-	-
Year 1	3452769	-6563774	3452769	0.8696	3002408
Year 2	3972057	-2591717	7424826	0.7561	3003446
Year 3	3975677	1383960	11400503	0.6575	2614072
Year 4	3239661	4623621	14640164	0.5718	1852287
TOTAL					10472212

The Net NPV after 4 years is 455669

(10472212 - 10016543 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10016543)	-10016543	-	-
Year 1	3452769	-6563774	3452769	0.8333	2877308
Year 2	3972057	-2591717	7424826	0.6944	2758373
Year 3	3975677	1383960	11400503	0.5787	2300739
Year 4	3239661	4623621	14640164	0.4823	1562337
TOTAL					9498756

The Net NPV after 4 years is -517787

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9498756 - 10016543 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Search Paid to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Search Paid has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Search Paid can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Search Paid, then the stock price of the Search Paid should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Search Paid should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Paid Search: The Innovation that Changed the Web

References & Further Readings

Des Laffey, Kent D. Seltman (2018), "Paid Search: The Innovation that Changed the Web Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.