Kfar Giladi Quarries: Crisis During an Economic Recession Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Kfar Giladi Quarries: Crisis During an Economic Recession case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Kfar Giladi Quarries: Crisis During an Economic Recession case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Sara Edom, Ilan Alon, Jennifer Dugosh. The Kfar Giladi Quarries: Crisis During an Economic Recession (referred as “Giladi Kfar” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Kfar Giladi Quarries: Crisis During an Economic Recession Case Study

Kfar Giladi Quarries (KGQ), situated in northern Israel, faces a crisis: the national economy is in recession; the government budget for infrastructure development and construction, on which the company depends, has been reduced; transportation and distribution problems limit its ability to export (or import) cheap raw materials; and there is increasing competition in the industry. The company had recently dissolved its partnership with Malibu Israel Company Ltd., an international company that had given it access to the central part of Israel where most infrastructure and construction jobs and investments are located. The result has been loss in business and a negative cash flow. The case allows students to practise basic tools for strategic planning and permits guidance to companies hesitating over a recovery program, especially during an economic recession; companies in a reorganization phase after separation from a partner; and/or companies that have to shift their management paradigm.

Case Authors : Sara Edom, Ilan Alon, Jennifer Dugosh

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Kfar Giladi Quarries: Crisis During an Economic Recession Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025918)	-10025918	-	-
Year 1	3446286	-6579632	3446286	0.9434	3251213
Year 2	3954403	-2625229	7400689	0.89	3519405
Year 3	3940513	1315284	11341202	0.8396	3308531
Year 4	3234380	4549664	14575582	0.7921	2561932
TOTAL			14575582		12641080

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2615162

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Giladi Kfar shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Giladi Kfar have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Kfar Giladi Quarries: Crisis During an Economic Recession

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Giladi Kfar often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Giladi Kfar needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025918)	-10025918	-	-
Year 1	3446286	-6579632	3446286	0.8696	2996770
Year 2	3954403	-2625229	7400689	0.7561	2990097
Year 3	3940513	1315284	11341202	0.6575	2590951
Year 4	3234380	4549664	14575582	0.5718	1849267
TOTAL					10427086

The Net NPV after 4 years is 401168

(10427086 - 10025918 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025918)	-10025918	-	-
Year 1	3446286	-6579632	3446286	0.8333	2871905
Year 2	3954403	-2625229	7400689	0.6944	2746113
Year 3	3940513	1315284	11341202	0.5787	2280389
Year 4	3234380	4549664	14575582	0.4823	1559790
TOTAL					9458197

The Net NPV after 4 years is -567721

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9458197 - 10025918 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Giladi Kfar to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Giladi Kfar has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Giladi Kfar can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Giladi Kfar, then the stock price of the Giladi Kfar should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Giladi Kfar should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Kfar Giladi Quarries: Crisis During an Economic Recession

References & Further Readings

Sara Edom, Ilan Alon, Jennifer Dugosh (2018), "Kfar Giladi Quarries: Crisis During an Economic Recession Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.