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THE BULLARD HOUSES - Confidential Instructions for the Buyer's Representative Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for THE BULLARD HOUSES - Confidential Instructions for the Buyer's Representative case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. THE BULLARD HOUSES - Confidential Instructions for the Buyer's Representative case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Ron Karp, David Gold, Mox Tan. The THE BULLARD HOUSES - Confidential Instructions for the Buyer's Representative (referred as “Downtown Absentia” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management, Government, Negotiations.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of THE BULLARD HOUSES - Confidential Instructions for the Buyer's Representative Case Study


Confidential Instructions for the Buyer's Representative for product #PON124.Downtown Realty, Inc. owns the historic Bullard Houses, a set of 51 attached brownstones in the city of Gotham. The Houses, occupied for decades by the city's wealthy elite, have fallen into disrepair and are currently occupied only by a few low-income families. Downtown Realty has been prevented from demolishing the Houses by the Gothic Landmark Commission. Consequently, Downtown is eager to sell the property, and has several offers on the table. Downtown has not yet seen the offer of a fourth developer, Absentia, Ltd. Absentia is unfamiliar with Downtown's other offers, but is confident that its offer will be appealing, although it is unwilling to reveal its exact plans. The negotiation involves attorneys representing Downtown Realty and Absentia, Ltd. This is a role play case.


Case Authors : Ron Karp, David Gold, Mox Tan

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Financial management, Government, Negotiations




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for THE BULLARD HOUSES - Confidential Instructions for the Buyer's Representative Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10010137) -10010137 - -
Year 1 3458469 -6551668 3458469 0.9434 3262707
Year 2 3982341 -2569327 7440810 0.89 3544269
Year 3 3945979 1376652 11386789 0.8396 3313120
Year 4 3228956 4605608 14615745 0.7921 2557636
TOTAL 14615745 12677732


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2667595

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Downtown Absentia shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Downtown Absentia have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of THE BULLARD HOUSES - Confidential Instructions for the Buyer's Representative

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Downtown Absentia often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Downtown Absentia needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10010137) -10010137 - -
Year 1 3458469 -6551668 3458469 0.8696 3007364
Year 2 3982341 -2569327 7440810 0.7561 3011222
Year 3 3945979 1376652 11386789 0.6575 2594545
Year 4 3228956 4605608 14615745 0.5718 1846166
TOTAL 10459298


The Net NPV after 4 years is 449161

(10459298 - 10010137 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10010137) -10010137 - -
Year 1 3458469 -6551668 3458469 0.8333 2882058
Year 2 3982341 -2569327 7440810 0.6944 2765515
Year 3 3945979 1376652 11386789 0.5787 2283553
Year 4 3228956 4605608 14615745 0.4823 1557174
TOTAL 9488299


The Net NPV after 4 years is -521838

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9488299 - 10010137 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Downtown Absentia to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Downtown Absentia has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Downtown Absentia can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Downtown Absentia, then the stock price of the Downtown Absentia should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Downtown Absentia should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Ron Karp, David Gold, Mox Tan (2018), "THE BULLARD HOUSES - Confidential Instructions for the Buyer's Representative Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.