Redhook Ale Brewery Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Redhook Ale Brewery case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Redhook Ale Brewery case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Jared Harris, Mike Lenox, Jeanne M. Liedtka, Rebecca Goldberg. The Redhook Ale Brewery (referred as “Redhook Shipman” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, IPO, Manufacturing, Sustainability.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Redhook Ale Brewery Case Study

In 1995, Paul Shipman, CEO of Redhook Ale Brewery, and his management team prepared to enter uncharted territory by taking their craft-brewing operation public in the United States. Although there already were massive large-batch breweries that were profitable, publicly traded firms, Redhook was different: it embodied the ethos and grassroots beginnings of the microbrew movement. Still Shipman wondered about the potential of the craft-brewing industry segment.

Case Authors : Jared Harris, Mike Lenox, Jeanne M. Liedtka, Rebecca Goldberg

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : IPO, Manufacturing, Sustainability

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Redhook Ale Brewery Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10026907)	-10026907	-	-
Year 1	3444754	-6582153	3444754	0.9434	3249768
Year 2	3977597	-2604556	7422351	0.89	3540047
Year 3	3962780	1358224	11385131	0.8396	3327227
Year 4	3245106	4603330	14630237	0.7921	2570428
TOTAL			14630237		12687469

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2660562

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Redhook Shipman have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Redhook Shipman shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Redhook Ale Brewery

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Redhook Shipman often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Redhook Shipman needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10026907)	-10026907	-	-
Year 1	3444754	-6582153	3444754	0.8696	2995438
Year 2	3977597	-2604556	7422351	0.7561	3007635
Year 3	3962780	1358224	11385131	0.6575	2605592
Year 4	3245106	4603330	14630237	0.5718	1855400
TOTAL					10464065

The Net NPV after 4 years is 437158

(10464065 - 10026907 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10026907)	-10026907	-	-
Year 1	3444754	-6582153	3444754	0.8333	2870628
Year 2	3977597	-2604556	7422351	0.6944	2762220
Year 3	3962780	1358224	11385131	0.5787	2293275
Year 4	3245106	4603330	14630237	0.4823	1564962
TOTAL					9491086

The Net NPV after 4 years is -535821

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9491086 - 10026907 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Redhook Shipman to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Redhook Shipman has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Redhook Shipman can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Redhook Shipman, then the stock price of the Redhook Shipman should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Redhook Shipman should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Redhook Ale Brewery

References & Further Readings

Jared Harris, Mike Lenox, Jeanne M. Liedtka, Rebecca Goldberg (2018), "Redhook Ale Brewery Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.