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New Model for the Pharmaceutical Industry: The Institute for OneWorld Health Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for New Model for the Pharmaceutical Industry: The Institute for OneWorld Health case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. New Model for the Pharmaceutical Industry: The Institute for OneWorld Health case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Johanna Mair, Oliver Schoen. The New Model for the Pharmaceutical Industry: The Institute for OneWorld Health (referred as “Iowh Oneworld” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Emerging markets, Entrepreneurship, Growth strategy, Innovation, Social responsibility.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of New Model for the Pharmaceutical Industry: The Institute for OneWorld Health Case Study


Introduces the Institute for OneWorld Health (IOWH), a company dedicated to producing drugs for neglected diseases and the first nonprofit pharmaceutical company in the world. Founded in 2000 by Dr. Victoria Hale, IOWH took expired and donated patent compounds and developed them through all the stages of clinical testing and approval into drugs to fight the world's most destructive diseases, usually occurring in Third World countries where perceived profitable markets did not yet exist. By 2004, IOWH was presenting its first Phase 3 clinical trial results for Paromomycin, a drug developed for Visceral Leishmaniasis, which kills as many as 200,000 people each year in India, Bangladesh, Sudan, Brazil, and Nepal. Its next task was to form partnerships with other organizations to manufacture and distribute the drug. Focuses on Hale's strategy for IOWH going forward, with particular reference to its core competencies and mission.


Case Authors : Johanna Mair, Oliver Schoen

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Emerging markets, Entrepreneurship, Growth strategy, Innovation, Social responsibility




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for New Model for the Pharmaceutical Industry: The Institute for OneWorld Health Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10019920) -10019920 - -
Year 1 3450316 -6569604 3450316 0.9434 3255015
Year 2 3972770 -2596834 7423086 0.89 3535751
Year 3 3964072 1367238 11387158 0.8396 3328311
Year 4 3250468 4617706 14637626 0.7921 2574675
TOTAL 14637626 12693753




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2673833

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Iowh Oneworld have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Iowh Oneworld shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of New Model for the Pharmaceutical Industry: The Institute for OneWorld Health

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Iowh Oneworld often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Iowh Oneworld needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10019920) -10019920 - -
Year 1 3450316 -6569604 3450316 0.8696 3000275
Year 2 3972770 -2596834 7423086 0.7561 3003985
Year 3 3964072 1367238 11387158 0.6575 2606442
Year 4 3250468 4617706 14637626 0.5718 1858466
TOTAL 10469167


The Net NPV after 4 years is 449247

(10469167 - 10019920 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10019920) -10019920 - -
Year 1 3450316 -6569604 3450316 0.8333 2875263
Year 2 3972770 -2596834 7423086 0.6944 2758868
Year 3 3964072 1367238 11387158 0.5787 2294023
Year 4 3250468 4617706 14637626 0.4823 1567548
TOTAL 9495703


The Net NPV after 4 years is -524217

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9495703 - 10019920 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Iowh Oneworld to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Iowh Oneworld has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Iowh Oneworld can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Iowh Oneworld, then the stock price of the Iowh Oneworld should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Iowh Oneworld should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of New Model for the Pharmaceutical Industry: The Institute for OneWorld Health

References & Further Readings

Johanna Mair, Oliver Schoen (2018), "New Model for the Pharmaceutical Industry: The Institute for OneWorld Health Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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