CITIC Tower II: The Real Option Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for CITIC Tower II: The Real Option case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. CITIC Tower II: The Real Option case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Frederik Pretorius, Mary Ho. The CITIC Tower II: The Real Option (referred as “Cpl Citic” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial markets, Project management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

Case Description of CITIC Tower II: The Real Option Case Study

Citic Pacific Ltd. (CPL) had to decide whether to purchase newly reclaimed land at the waterfront of Victoria Harbour, Hong Kong, and develop a Grade A office building for investment purposes. The decision was to be made at an approaching cyclical high point in the market for Grade A office space, in the second half of 2000. CPL knew that the commercial real estate market was extremely cyclical and that very few companies active in the market had managed to time rental cycles and investment strategy successfully. If Citic Tower II came onto the market at the right time, it might be far more promising than it appeared in mid-2000. Nobody knows when the "right time" is, of course, but being able to defer the decision to develop while still retaining control over the site could buy time and the option to retain what could be a very good opportunity. In other words, CPL had to value its options.

Case Authors : Frederik Pretorius, Mary Ho

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Financial markets, Project management

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for CITIC Tower II: The Real Option Case Study

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10003988) -10003988 - -
Year 1 3464166 -6539822 3464166 0.9434 3268081
Year 2 3972821 -2567001 7436987 0.89 3535797
Year 3 3947818 1380817 11384805 0.8396 3314664
Year 4 3240859 4621676 14625664 0.7921 2567064
TOTAL 14625664 12685606

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2681618

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Profitability Index
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Cpl Citic have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Cpl Citic shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of CITIC Tower II: The Real Option

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Cpl Citic often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Cpl Citic needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10003988) -10003988 - -
Year 1 3464166 -6539822 3464166 0.8696 3012318
Year 2 3972821 -2567001 7436987 0.7561 3004023
Year 3 3947818 1380817 11384805 0.6575 2595754
Year 4 3240859 4621676 14625664 0.5718 1852972
TOTAL 10465068

The Net NPV after 4 years is 461080

(10465068 - 10003988 )

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10003988) -10003988 - -
Year 1 3464166 -6539822 3464166 0.8333 2886805
Year 2 3972821 -2567001 7436987 0.6944 2758903
Year 3 3947818 1380817 11384805 0.5787 2284617
Year 4 3240859 4621676 14625664 0.4823 1562914
TOTAL 9493240

The Net NPV after 4 years is -510748

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9493240 - 10003988 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Cpl Citic to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Cpl Citic has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Cpl Citic can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Cpl Citic, then the stock price of the Cpl Citic should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Cpl Citic should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

References & Further Readings

Frederik Pretorius, Mary Ho (2018), "CITIC Tower II: The Real Option Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.