Mexico City Water Shortage Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Mexico City Water Shortage case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Mexico City Water Shortage case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by John D. Macomber, Regina Garcia-Cuellar, Griffin H. James, Frederik Nellemann. The Mexico City Water Shortage (referred as “Water City” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, International business, Joint ventures, Policy, Sustainability.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Mexico City Water Shortage Case Study

To maximize their effectiveness, color cases should be printed in color.In this case, a property company, a water privatizer, and municipal engineers explore the causes of and solutions to a severe water shortage in Mexico City, a great global capital. The protagonist is a real estate investor doing due diligence on the magnitude of the crisis, the impact on the firm's operations, and the likelihood of resolution. Due diligence includes interviews with city water officials and global-scale water privatizers. This case is an excellent introduction to city scale infrastructure issues on a global level. A related case, "Water Shortage and Property Investing in Mexico City," HBS No. 210-085, contains more real estate finance and less water infrastructure finance material than this case does.

Case Authors : John D. Macomber, Regina Garcia-Cuellar, Griffin H. James, Frederik Nellemann

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : International business, Joint ventures, Policy, Sustainability

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Mexico City Water Shortage Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10007525)	-10007525	-	-
Year 1	3454376	-6553149	3454376	0.9434	3258845
Year 2	3971455	-2581694	7425831	0.89	3534581
Year 3	3942251	1360557	11368082	0.8396	3309990
Year 4	3235760	4596317	14603842	0.7921	2563025
TOTAL			14603842		12666441

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2658916

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Net Present Value
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Water City have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Water City shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Mexico City Water Shortage

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Water City often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Water City needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10007525)	-10007525	-	-
Year 1	3454376	-6553149	3454376	0.8696	3003805
Year 2	3971455	-2581694	7425831	0.7561	3002991
Year 3	3942251	1360557	11368082	0.6575	2592094
Year 4	3235760	4596317	14603842	0.5718	1850056
TOTAL					10448946

The Net NPV after 4 years is 441421

(10448946 - 10007525 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10007525)	-10007525	-	-
Year 1	3454376	-6553149	3454376	0.8333	2878647
Year 2	3971455	-2581694	7425831	0.6944	2757955
Year 3	3942251	1360557	11368082	0.5787	2281395
Year 4	3235760	4596317	14603842	0.4823	1560455
TOTAL					9478452

The Net NPV after 4 years is -529073

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9478452 - 10007525 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Water City to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Water City has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Water City can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Water City, then the stock price of the Water City should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Water City should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Mexico City Water Shortage

References & Further Readings

John D. Macomber, Regina Garcia-Cuellar, Griffin H. James, Frederik Nellemann (2018), "Mexico City Water Shortage Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.