Alliances That Build Alliances: McKinsey-Ashoka and the Fundacion Compromiso Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Alliances That Build Alliances: McKinsey-Ashoka and the Fundacion Compromiso case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Alliances That Build Alliances: McKinsey-Ashoka and the Fundacion Compromiso case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Fernando Frydman, Guillermo Arnaudo, Cecilia Rena, Gabriel Berger. The Alliances That Build Alliances: McKinsey-Ashoka and the Fundacion Compromiso (referred as “Fundacion Compromiso” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, International business, Joint ventures, Leadership, Public relations.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Alliances That Build Alliances: McKinsey-Ashoka and the Fundacion Compromiso Case Study

McKinsey is an international consulting company that operates in 43 countries. Fundacion Compromiso is an nonprofit entity that provides training, counseling, and technical assistance to improve the management and impact of other nonprofit entities of Argentina. A third organization, Ashoka Association, supports social entrepreneurs and has a global alliance with McKinsey. Ashoka's intermediation is responsible for a cooperation program through which McKinsey applies its central skills to provide technical assistance to Fundacion Compromiso. The objectives of this activity are to evaluate one of Fundacion Compromiso's most important programs and establish a long-term growth strategy for this nonprofit entity. However, following the technical assistance work developed by McKinsey is a dramatic change in Argentina's social, political, and economic situations, which limit the agreed-on strategic plan, forcing Fundacion Compromiso to reconsider its growth strategy.

Case Authors : Fernando Frydman, Guillermo Arnaudo, Cecilia Rena, Gabriel Berger

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : International business, Joint ventures, Leadership, Public relations

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Alliances That Build Alliances: McKinsey-Ashoka and the Fundacion Compromiso Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10003852)	-10003852	-	-
Year 1	3454693	-6549159	3454693	0.9434	3259144
Year 2	3981252	-2567907	7435945	0.89	3543300
Year 3	3961971	1394064	11397916	0.8396	3326547
Year 4	3239025	4633089	14636941	0.7921	2565611
TOTAL			14636941		12694603

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2690751

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Profitability Index
3. Net Present Value
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Fundacion Compromiso shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Fundacion Compromiso have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Alliances That Build Alliances: McKinsey-Ashoka and the Fundacion Compromiso

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Fundacion Compromiso often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Fundacion Compromiso needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10003852)	-10003852	-	-
Year 1	3454693	-6549159	3454693	0.8696	3004081
Year 2	3981252	-2567907	7435945	0.7561	3010398
Year 3	3961971	1394064	11397916	0.6575	2605060
Year 4	3239025	4633089	14636941	0.5718	1851923
TOTAL					10471463

The Net NPV after 4 years is 467611

(10471463 - 10003852 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10003852)	-10003852	-	-
Year 1	3454693	-6549159	3454693	0.8333	2878911
Year 2	3981252	-2567907	7435945	0.6944	2764758
Year 3	3961971	1394064	11397916	0.5787	2292807
Year 4	3239025	4633089	14636941	0.4823	1562030
TOTAL					9498506

The Net NPV after 4 years is -505346

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9498506 - 10003852 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Fundacion Compromiso to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Fundacion Compromiso has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Fundacion Compromiso can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Fundacion Compromiso, then the stock price of the Fundacion Compromiso should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Fundacion Compromiso should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Alliances That Build Alliances: McKinsey-Ashoka and the Fundacion Compromiso

References & Further Readings

Fernando Frydman, Guillermo Arnaudo, Cecilia Rena, Gabriel Berger (2018), "Alliances That Build Alliances: McKinsey-Ashoka and the Fundacion Compromiso Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.