Cisco Systems: New Millennium - New Acquisition Strategy? Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Cisco Systems: New Millennium - New Acquisition Strategy? case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Cisco Systems: New Millennium - New Acquisition Strategy? case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Nir Brueller, Laurence Capron. The Cisco Systems: New Millennium - New Acquisition Strategy? (referred as “Cisco Ironport” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Cisco Systems: New Millennium - New Acquisition Strategy? Case Study

The case first describes the evolution of Cisco Systems of San Jose, California, from a narrowly-focused routing and switching equipment vendor, with a highly effective competitive strategy, into a diversified networking and IT giant. This growth was fuelled by many acquisitions, the rationale of which developed over time, in light of the growth opportunities and challenges which Cisco encountered. The events described in the case took place in early 2007, while Cisco was considering the acquisition of IronPort, a security software company. A decision to purchase IronPort would symbol a continual divergence from Cisco's old and famous acquisition strategy of acquiring young entrepreneurial firms, to complement its internal development efforts and become a one-stop-shop for its networking customers. This divergence started a few years earlier, with the acquisition of large firms like Linksys and Scientific Atlanta, labeled by Cisco's management as "platform" deals.

Case Authors : Nir Brueller, Laurence Capron

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Cisco Systems: New Millennium - New Acquisition Strategy? Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009890)	-10009890	-	-
Year 1	3467366	-6542524	3467366	0.9434	3271100
Year 2	3976254	-2566270	7443620	0.89	3538852
Year 3	3963134	1396864	11406754	0.8396	3327524
Year 4	3229622	4626486	14636376	0.7921	2558163
TOTAL			14636376		12695639

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2685749

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Profitability Index
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Cisco Ironport shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Cisco Ironport have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Cisco Systems: New Millennium - New Acquisition Strategy?

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Cisco Ironport often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Cisco Ironport needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009890)	-10009890	-	-
Year 1	3467366	-6542524	3467366	0.8696	3015101
Year 2	3976254	-2566270	7443620	0.7561	3006619
Year 3	3963134	1396864	11406754	0.6575	2605825
Year 4	3229622	4626486	14636376	0.5718	1846547
TOTAL					10474092

The Net NPV after 4 years is 464202

(10474092 - 10009890 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009890)	-10009890	-	-
Year 1	3467366	-6542524	3467366	0.8333	2889472
Year 2	3976254	-2566270	7443620	0.6944	2761288
Year 3	3963134	1396864	11406754	0.5787	2293480
Year 4	3229622	4626486	14636376	0.4823	1557495
TOTAL					9501735

The Net NPV after 4 years is -508155

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9501735 - 10009890 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Cisco Ironport to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Cisco Ironport has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Cisco Ironport can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Cisco Ironport, then the stock price of the Cisco Ironport should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Cisco Ironport should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Cisco Systems: New Millennium - New Acquisition Strategy?

References & Further Readings

Nir Brueller, Laurence Capron (2018), "Cisco Systems: New Millennium - New Acquisition Strategy? Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.