WMS: Revenue Model Innovation for Gaming Solutions Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for WMS: Revenue Model Innovation for Gaming Solutions case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. WMS: Revenue Model Innovation for Gaming Solutions case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Mohanbir Sawhney, Pallavi Goodman, Ori Broit. The WMS: Revenue Model Innovation for Gaming Solutions (referred as “Casinos Gaming” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Pricing.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of WMS: Revenue Model Innovation for Gaming Solutions Case Study

In 2014 WMS Gaming, a manufacturer and seller of slot machines to casinos, was considering a redesign of its existing revenue model. As technology evolved and customer demand for gaming solutions intensified, new and innovative revenue models were being adopted in other technology markets. Most notably, the subscription revenue model, in which customers paid a monthly subscription fee rather than a large upfront fee, was becoming widely adopted in the software industry. Product manager Dayna Stone had the task of evaluating several revenue models and recommending one that most suited WMS's business needs and at the same time took customer needs and wishes into consideration. Complicating this decision were several factors that would have to be kept in mind. Americans' love of gaming had led to a mushrooming of casinos, which meant increased competition for casino dollars. Yet the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath had weakened demand for casinos. In addition, casinos, depending on the type of customers they attracted, differed in their appetite for innovation and maintenance of their slot machines. Students will step into the shoes of Dayna Stone as she undertakes the task of weighing these factors and selecting the right revenue model.

Case Authors : Mohanbir Sawhney, Pallavi Goodman, Ori Broit

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Pricing

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for WMS: Revenue Model Innovation for Gaming Solutions Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002572)	-10002572	-	-
Year 1	3452862	-6549710	3452862	0.9434	3257417
Year 2	3964956	-2584754	7417818	0.89	3528797
Year 3	3971128	1386374	11388946	0.8396	3334236
Year 4	3231605	4617979	14620551	0.7921	2559734
TOTAL			14620551		12680183

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2677611

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Net Present Value
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Casinos Gaming shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Casinos Gaming have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of WMS: Revenue Model Innovation for Gaming Solutions

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Casinos Gaming often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Casinos Gaming needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002572)	-10002572	-	-
Year 1	3452862	-6549710	3452862	0.8696	3002489
Year 2	3964956	-2584754	7417818	0.7561	2998076
Year 3	3971128	1386374	11388946	0.6575	2611081
Year 4	3231605	4617979	14620551	0.5718	1847681
TOTAL					10459327

The Net NPV after 4 years is 456755

(10459327 - 10002572 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002572)	-10002572	-	-
Year 1	3452862	-6549710	3452862	0.8333	2877385
Year 2	3964956	-2584754	7417818	0.6944	2753442
Year 3	3971128	1386374	11388946	0.5787	2298106
Year 4	3231605	4617979	14620551	0.4823	1558451
TOTAL					9487385

The Net NPV after 4 years is -515187

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9487385 - 10002572 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Casinos Gaming to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Casinos Gaming has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Casinos Gaming can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Casinos Gaming, then the stock price of the Casinos Gaming should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Casinos Gaming should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of WMS: Revenue Model Innovation for Gaming Solutions

References & Further Readings

Mohanbir Sawhney, Pallavi Goodman, Ori Broit (2018), "WMS: Revenue Model Innovation for Gaming Solutions Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.