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Sa Sa International: Growth Amidst Adversity Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Sa Sa International: Growth Amidst Adversity case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Sa Sa International: Growth Amidst Adversity case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Kavita Sethi, Stephen Ko. The Sa Sa International: Growth Amidst Adversity (referred as “Sa Sa's” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Competitive strategy, Entrepreneurship.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Sa Sa International: Growth Amidst Adversity Case Study


Pioneering the discount store concept in cosmetic retailing in Hong Kong, Eleanor and Simon Kwok had succeeded in building Sa Sa into one of Asia's largest cosmetic and beauty service retailers. Enunciates Sa Sa's growth in the face of a host of environmental contretemps, including the Asian financial crisis and the SARS pandemic. Escalating rents coupled with lower-than-expected tourism figures harbingered continual turbulence in its core market, Hong Kong. Under pressure to maintain margins, other causes of concern were continued losses from its operations in China and the unsatisfactory performance of its beauty services division. Additionally, it appeared that Sa Sa was facing a positioning paradox--that of being a low-cost retailer, stocking goods from parallel imports, while trying to project the upmarket image required by the global brands it stocked. Evaluating Sa Sa's current status, students can develop strategies that would enable Sa Sa's continued success and ability to compete in the changing retail environment.


Case Authors : Kavita Sethi, Stephen Ko

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Competitive strategy, Entrepreneurship




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Sa Sa International: Growth Amidst Adversity Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10015313) -10015313 - -
Year 1 3458649 -6556664 3458649 0.9434 3262876
Year 2 3975760 -2580904 7434409 0.89 3538412
Year 3 3948222 1367318 11382631 0.8396 3315003
Year 4 3233931 4601249 14616562 0.7921 2561576
TOTAL 14616562 12677868




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2662555

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Sa Sa's shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Sa Sa's have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Sa Sa International: Growth Amidst Adversity

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Sa Sa's often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Sa Sa's needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10015313) -10015313 - -
Year 1 3458649 -6556664 3458649 0.8696 3007521
Year 2 3975760 -2580904 7434409 0.7561 3006246
Year 3 3948222 1367318 11382631 0.6575 2596020
Year 4 3233931 4601249 14616562 0.5718 1849011
TOTAL 10458797


The Net NPV after 4 years is 443484

(10458797 - 10015313 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10015313) -10015313 - -
Year 1 3458649 -6556664 3458649 0.8333 2882208
Year 2 3975760 -2580904 7434409 0.6944 2760944
Year 3 3948222 1367318 11382631 0.5787 2284851
Year 4 3233931 4601249 14616562 0.4823 1559573
TOTAL 9487576


The Net NPV after 4 years is -527737

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9487576 - 10015313 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Sa Sa's to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Sa Sa's has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Sa Sa's can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Sa Sa's, then the stock price of the Sa Sa's should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Sa Sa's should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Sa Sa International: Growth Amidst Adversity

References & Further Readings

Kavita Sethi, Stephen Ko (2018), "Sa Sa International: Growth Amidst Adversity Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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