Amgen Inc.: Pursuing Innovation and Imitation? (B) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Amgen Inc.: Pursuing Innovation and Imitation? (B) case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Amgen Inc.: Pursuing Innovation and Imitation? (B) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Ian W Mackenzie. The Amgen Inc.: Pursuing Innovation and Imitation? (B) (referred as “Amgen Biosimilars” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Amgen Inc.: Pursuing Innovation and Imitation? (B) Case Study

The (B) case reveals that Sharer decided that Amgen should the emerging biosimilars business. However, he took the better part of a year to syndicate the decision across the senior team while in parallel investing in some time-critical process development. The (B) case then focuses on how the new business should be implemented, particularly in terms of integration versus separation of a new business unit, choice of unit leader, and whether Amgen should partner with a third party to gain access to skills or resources.

Case Authors : Ian W Mackenzie

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Amgen Inc.: Pursuing Innovation and Imitation? (B) Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024376)	-10024376	-	-
Year 1	3460802	-6563574	3460802	0.9434	3264908
Year 2	3963664	-2599910	7424466	0.89	3527647
Year 3	3960378	1360468	11384844	0.8396	3325210
Year 4	3233181	4593649	14618025	0.7921	2560982
TOTAL			14618025		12678746

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2654370

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Net Present Value
3. Payback Period
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Amgen Biosimilars have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Amgen Biosimilars shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Amgen Inc.: Pursuing Innovation and Imitation? (B)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Amgen Biosimilars often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Amgen Biosimilars needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024376)	-10024376	-	-
Year 1	3460802	-6563574	3460802	0.8696	3009393
Year 2	3963664	-2599910	7424466	0.7561	2997099
Year 3	3960378	1360468	11384844	0.6575	2604013
Year 4	3233181	4593649	14618025	0.5718	1848582
TOTAL					10459087

The Net NPV after 4 years is 434711

(10459087 - 10024376 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024376)	-10024376	-	-
Year 1	3460802	-6563574	3460802	0.8333	2884002
Year 2	3963664	-2599910	7424466	0.6944	2752544
Year 3	3960378	1360468	11384844	0.5787	2291885
Year 4	3233181	4593649	14618025	0.4823	1559212
TOTAL					9487643

The Net NPV after 4 years is -536733

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9487643 - 10024376 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Amgen Biosimilars to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Amgen Biosimilars has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Amgen Biosimilars can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Amgen Biosimilars, then the stock price of the Amgen Biosimilars should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Amgen Biosimilars should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Amgen Inc.: Pursuing Innovation and Imitation? (B)

References & Further Readings

Ian W Mackenzie (2018), "Amgen Inc.: Pursuing Innovation and Imitation? (B) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.