Asking "What Else?" to Identify Unintended Negative Consequences Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Asking "What Else?" to Identify Unintended Negative Consequences case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Asking "What Else?" to Identify Unintended Negative Consequences case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Kathleen Wilburn, Ralph Wilburn. The Asking "What Else?" to Identify Unintended Negative Consequences (referred as “Unintended Negative” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Decision making, Social responsibility, Strategic planning, Sustainability.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Asking "What Else?" to Identify Unintended Negative Consequences Case Study

With the advent of big data, the Internet of Things, cognitive computing, and social media, it is becoming more difficult to argue that one could not have known or at least have considered more alternatives, particularly negative unintended consequences that happen in addition to the intended positive ones. Organizations too often make a decision that will produce a positive consequence and then focus on how to implement it, rarely stepping back to ask ''What else could happen?'' Any decision changes the system in which it exists. The longer the time required to implement a decision, the more systemic changes can alter the effects of the decision on the system. Decisions to implement Corporate Social Responsibility and sustainability initiatives usually involve many different stakeholders and may involve systems in which organizations have little expertise or experience. A major negative unintended consequence, even for a CSR initiative, can damage the stakeholders' trust in the organization. This article proposes a 5-step process to answer the question ''What else could happen?'' in order to identify possible unintended negative consequences, thereby helping organizations support their commitment to people, planet, and profit.

Case Authors : Kathleen Wilburn, Ralph Wilburn

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Decision making, Social responsibility, Strategic planning, Sustainability

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Asking "What Else?" to Identify Unintended Negative Consequences Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002132)	-10002132	-	-
Year 1	3444297	-6557835	3444297	0.9434	3249337
Year 2	3972336	-2585499	7416633	0.89	3535365
Year 3	3959564	1374065	11376197	0.8396	3324526
Year 4	3228633	4602698	14604830	0.7921	2557380
TOTAL			14604830		12666608

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2664476

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Unintended Negative have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Unintended Negative shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Asking "What Else?" to Identify Unintended Negative Consequences

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Unintended Negative often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Unintended Negative needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002132)	-10002132	-	-
Year 1	3444297	-6557835	3444297	0.8696	2995041
Year 2	3972336	-2585499	7416633	0.7561	3003657
Year 3	3959564	1374065	11376197	0.6575	2603478
Year 4	3228633	4602698	14604830	0.5718	1845981
TOTAL					10448157

The Net NPV after 4 years is 446025

(10448157 - 10002132 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002132)	-10002132	-	-
Year 1	3444297	-6557835	3444297	0.8333	2870248
Year 2	3972336	-2585499	7416633	0.6944	2758567
Year 3	3959564	1374065	11376197	0.5787	2291414
Year 4	3228633	4602698	14604830	0.4823	1557018
TOTAL					9477247

The Net NPV after 4 years is -524885

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9477247 - 10002132 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Unintended Negative to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Unintended Negative has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Unintended Negative can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Unintended Negative, then the stock price of the Unintended Negative should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Unintended Negative should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Asking "What Else?" to Identify Unintended Negative Consequences

References & Further Readings

Kathleen Wilburn, Ralph Wilburn (2018), "Asking "What Else?" to Identify Unintended Negative Consequences Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.