Developing an App for That Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Developing an App for That case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Developing an App for That case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Hanna Halaburda, Joshua Gans, Nathaniel Burbank. The Developing an App for That (referred as “Platform Devices” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, IT.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Developing an App for That Case Study

At a time when ever-rising smartphone sales are driven as much by demand for devices that run must-have third-party apps as by the quality of traditional voice and data services, there is a myriad of challenges facing the software developer who is looking to choose which mobile development software platform to invest in. Written from the perspective of an established consumer bank that is about to commence development on its first downloadable application for mobile devices, the case surveys the state of the smartphone market in 2010 and considers the challenges of a platform landscape that includes significantly varying installed device base sizes, growth rates, application distribution models, and hardware device profiles. Focusing on Apple's market-leading iOS platform and App Store, for iPhones and other devices and on Google's developing Android OS and associated Android Market, the case considers potential benefits and pitfalls of each and touches on the reasons that other longer-standing platforms, such as RIM's BlackBerry platform, are less appealing to modern-day application developers.

Case Authors : Hanna Halaburda, Joshua Gans, Nathaniel Burbank

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : IT

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Developing an App for That Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10011596)	-10011596	-	-
Year 1	3449199	-6562397	3449199	0.9434	3253961
Year 2	3959726	-2602671	7408925	0.89	3524142
Year 3	3956096	1353425	11365021	0.8396	3321614
Year 4	3231545	4584970	14596566	0.7921	2559686
TOTAL			14596566		12659404

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2647808

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Net Present Value
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Platform Devices shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Platform Devices have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Developing an App for That

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Platform Devices often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Platform Devices needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10011596)	-10011596	-	-
Year 1	3449199	-6562397	3449199	0.8696	2999303
Year 2	3959726	-2602671	7408925	0.7561	2994122
Year 3	3956096	1353425	11365021	0.6575	2601197
Year 4	3231545	4584970	14596566	0.5718	1847646
TOTAL					10442269

The Net NPV after 4 years is 430673

(10442269 - 10011596 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10011596)	-10011596	-	-
Year 1	3449199	-6562397	3449199	0.8333	2874333
Year 2	3959726	-2602671	7408925	0.6944	2749810
Year 3	3956096	1353425	11365021	0.5787	2289407
Year 4	3231545	4584970	14596566	0.4823	1558423
TOTAL					9471972

The Net NPV after 4 years is -539624

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9471972 - 10011596 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Platform Devices to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Platform Devices has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Platform Devices can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Platform Devices, then the stock price of the Platform Devices should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Platform Devices should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Developing an App for That

References & Further Readings

Hanna Halaburda, Joshua Gans, Nathaniel Burbank (2018), "Developing an App for That Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.