Overcoming Consumer Resistance to Innovation Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Overcoming Consumer Resistance to Innovation case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Overcoming Consumer Resistance to Innovation case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Rosanna Garcia, Fleura Bardhi, Colette Friedrich. The Overcoming Consumer Resistance to Innovation (referred as “Screwcap Wine” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Leadership.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Overcoming Consumer Resistance to Innovation Case Study

This is an MIT Sloan Management Review article. When consumers resist adopting an innovation because it requires them to alter established habits, the innovation is called a resistant innovation. Uses a study involving the diffusion of screwcap wine closures in three countries--Australia, New Zealand, and the United States--to analyze strategies for marketing a resistant innovation. For winemakers, screwcap closures represent a solution to "cork taint," a quality problem that can be caused by poor-quality corks and that can affect wine flavor. But consumers have shown resistance to screwcap closures, associating them with cheap wines or preferring the tradition associated with cork. However, among wine consumers in Australia and New Zealand, screwcaps have now achieved widespread acceptance. But 2005 wine industry statistics showed that less than 5% of U.S. wineries used screwcaps on fine wines. What is the reason for this difference? Earlier research in 2004 had found few differences between U.S. wine consumers and those in Australia and New Zealand--except in their attitudes toward screwcaps. Interviews decision makers at more than two dozen wineries in the three countries, and concludes that winemakers in Australia and New Zealand had generally taken a different approach to marketing screwcap wine closures than United States wineries did. Concludes that under certain circumstances coopetition strategies, which involve some cooperation among competitive firms, can be an effective strategy for marketing a resistant innovation. Suggests that managers should analyze the marketing problem the new innovation faces and the resources available to address it; consider the kind of specific resources and knowledge that might be exchanged during coopetition; and evaluate the industry climate, including the role of trade associations and industry experts.

Case Authors : Rosanna Garcia, Fleura Bardhi, Colette Friedrich

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Leadership

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Overcoming Consumer Resistance to Innovation Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10020081)	-10020081	-	-
Year 1	3456886	-6563195	3456886	0.9434	3261213
Year 2	3958599	-2604596	7415485	0.89	3523139
Year 3	3972053	1367457	11387538	0.8396	3335012
Year 4	3228903	4596360	14616441	0.7921	2557594
TOTAL			14616441		12676958

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2656877

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Profitability Index
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Screwcap Wine shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Screwcap Wine have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Overcoming Consumer Resistance to Innovation

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Screwcap Wine often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Screwcap Wine needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10020081)	-10020081	-	-
Year 1	3456886	-6563195	3456886	0.8696	3005988
Year 2	3958599	-2604596	7415485	0.7561	2993270
Year 3	3972053	1367457	11387538	0.6575	2611689
Year 4	3228903	4596360	14616441	0.5718	1846136
TOTAL					10457082

The Net NPV after 4 years is 437001

(10457082 - 10020081 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10020081)	-10020081	-	-
Year 1	3456886	-6563195	3456886	0.8333	2880738
Year 2	3958599	-2604596	7415485	0.6944	2749027
Year 3	3972053	1367457	11387538	0.5787	2298642
Year 4	3228903	4596360	14616441	0.4823	1557148
TOTAL					9485556

The Net NPV after 4 years is -534525

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9485556 - 10020081 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Screwcap Wine to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Screwcap Wine has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Screwcap Wine can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Screwcap Wine, then the stock price of the Screwcap Wine should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Screwcap Wine should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Overcoming Consumer Resistance to Innovation

References & Further Readings

Rosanna Garcia, Fleura Bardhi, Colette Friedrich (2018), "Overcoming Consumer Resistance to Innovation Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.