Should the Ethanol Blender's Credit Be Eliminated? Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Should the Ethanol Blender's Credit Be Eliminated? case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Should the Ethanol Blender's Credit Be Eliminated? case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by David Besanko, Melissa Ulan. The Should the Ethanol Blender's Credit Be Eliminated? (referred as “Ethanol Blender's” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Policy, Strategy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

---

Case Description of Should the Ethanol Blender's Credit Be Eliminated? Case Study

In December 2010, one U.S. legislative action was largely overlooked in the popular press: the one-year extension of the 45-cent-per-gallon Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit (VEETC), commonly known as the "blender's credit." Both proponents and opponents of the blender's credit liked to cite data to support their positions. Proponents pointed out the number of jobs created by new ethanol plants, while opponents cited unfavorable energy balances from the use of ethanol and the overall budgetary impact of the blender's credit. What was less clear-but potentially much more important than the selective data cited by advocates and critics of ethanol-was the overall impact of the blender's credit on the U.S. economy. In particular, to what extent did the ethanol subsidy-by influencing the allocation of resources to the ethanol market-act as a drag on efficiency in the U.S. economy? This case presents a history of ethanol in the U.S. and an overview of the market for ethanol-based motor fuel, including data on demand and supply fundamentals. It also discusses the broader U.S. energy market, as well as the U.S. market for corn. The case reviews other policy interventions besides the ethanol tax credit that have an impact on the market for ethanol-based motor fuel, such as tariffs and mandates. Finally, it surveys the ways other countries around the world, such as Brazil, have supported the use of ethanol-based fuel.

Case Authors : David Besanko, Melissa Ulan

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Policy, Strategy

---

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Should the Ethanol Blender's Credit Be Eliminated? Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028805)	-10028805	-	-
Year 1	3443972	-6584833	3443972	0.9434	3249030
Year 2	3979531	-2605302	7423503	0.89	3541768
Year 3	3956060	1350758	11379563	0.8396	3321584
Year 4	3244347	4595105	14623910	0.7921	2569827
TOTAL			14623910		12682210

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2653405

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

---

Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Ethanol Blender's have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Ethanol Blender's shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

---

Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Should the Ethanol Blender's Credit Be Eliminated?

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Ethanol Blender's often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Ethanol Blender's needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028805)	-10028805	-	-
Year 1	3443972	-6584833	3443972	0.8696	2994758
Year 2	3979531	-2605302	7423503	0.7561	3009097
Year 3	3956060	1350758	11379563	0.6575	2601174
Year 4	3244347	4595105	14623910	0.5718	1854966
TOTAL					10459995

The Net NPV after 4 years is 431190

(10459995 - 10028805 )

---

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028805)	-10028805	-	-
Year 1	3443972	-6584833	3443972	0.8333	2869977
Year 2	3979531	-2605302	7423503	0.6944	2763563
Year 3	3956060	1350758	11379563	0.5787	2289387
Year 4	3244347	4595105	14623910	0.4823	1564596
TOTAL					9487523

The Net NPV after 4 years is -541282

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9487523 - 10028805 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Ethanol Blender's to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Ethanol Blender's has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Ethanol Blender's can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Ethanol Blender's, then the stock price of the Ethanol Blender's should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Ethanol Blender's should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

---

Negotiation Strategy of Should the Ethanol Blender's Credit Be Eliminated?

References & Further Readings

David Besanko, Melissa Ulan (2018), "Should the Ethanol Blender's Credit Be Eliminated? Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.